Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78% implied probability against Turkey advancing a new constitution in 2026, driven by the ruling AK Party's ongoing preparatory work falling short of parliamentary supermajority requirements. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan renewed calls for a civilian charter last week during a Council of State speech, while AK Party Deputy Chair Hayati Yazıcı stated on May 13 that a commission's proposals are nearing a concrete road map after over 20 meetings. However, with the AK Party-MHP alliance holding around 318 of 600 Grand National Assembly seats, securing the 360 votes for a referendum demands uncertain opposition support from CHP or DEM amid term-limit debates ahead of 2028 elections. No bill has been introduced, underscoring procedural hurdles and limited time remaining.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78% implied probability against Turkey advancing a new constitution in 2026, driven by the ruling AK Party's ongoing preparatory work falling short of parliamentary supermajority requirements. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan renewed calls for a civilian charter last week during a Council of State speech, while AK Party Deputy Chair Hayati Yazıcı stated on May 13 that a commission's proposals are nearing a concrete road map after over 20 meetings. However, with the AK Party-MHP alliance holding around 318 of 600 Grand National Assembly seats, securing the 360 votes for a referendum demands uncertain opposition support from CHP or DEM amid term-limit debates ahead of 2028 elections. No bill has been introduced, underscoring procedural hurdles and limited time remaining.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,631Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78% implied probability against Turkey advancing a new constitution in 2026, driven by the ruling AK Party's ongoing preparatory work falling short of parliamentary supermajority requirements. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan renewed calls for a civilian charter last week during a Council of State speech, while AK Party Deputy Chair Hayati Yazıcı stated on May 13 that a commission's proposals are nearing a concrete road map after over 20 meetings. However, with the AK Party-MHP alliance holding around 318 of 600 Grand National Assembly seats, securing the 360 votes for a referendum demands uncertain opposition support from CHP or DEM amid term-limit debates ahead of 2028 elections. No bill has been introduced, underscoring procedural hurdles and limited time remaining.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,631Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78% implied probability against Turkey advancing a new constitution in 2026, driven by the ruling AK Party's ongoing preparatory work falling short of parliamentary supermajority requirements. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan renewed calls for a civilian charter last week during a Council of State speech, while AK Party Deputy Chair Hayati Yazıcı stated on May 13 that a commission's proposals are nearing a concrete road map after over 20 meetings. However, with the AK Party-MHP alliance holding around 318 of 600 Grand National Assembly seats, securing the 360 votes for a referendum demands uncertain opposition support from CHP or DEM amid term-limit debates ahead of 2028 elections. No bill has been introduced, underscoring procedural hurdles and limited time remaining.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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