The current trader consensus, reflected in the 99.4% implied probability for “No,” stems from the complete absence of any official announcements, legislative proposals, executive orders, or policy signals indicating that the U.S. government plans to acquire an equity stake in Spirit Airlines before the May 31 deadline. No recent developments in aviation policy, industry support measures, or broader economic intervention frameworks have suggested direct federal ownership in this low-cost carrier. Historical patterns show such government equity positions occur only in rare, large-scale crises, none of which apply here. While an unforeseen economic shock or sudden policy reversal could still theoretically alter the outcome, the lack of preparatory signals or scheduled actions within the narrow remaining window makes this improbable.