Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts have kept trader consensus tightly clustered between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges. Sweeping tariffs implemented in 2025 continue to curb goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments that limit export gains, producing monthly deficits of 57–60 billion dollars so far in 2026. Year-to-date figures show a sharp improvement versus the prior year, yet broader economic recovery, dollar movements, and potential new trade agreements introduce offsetting pressures that could push the full-year total higher. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate gradual narrowing as import growth slows relative to exports, but uncertainty over further tariff enforcement and global demand keeps the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
7%
500–600 milliards
6%
600–700 milliards
5%
700–800 milliards
8%
800–900 milliards
44%
900 Md – 1 Bn
36%
1T–1,1T
9%
1,1 T+
5%
$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
$16,637 Vol.
7%
500–600 milliards
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700 milliards
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800 milliards
$456 Vol.
8%
800–900 milliards
$1,008 Vol.
44%
900 Md – 1 Bn
$971 Vol.
36%
1T–1,1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1,1 T+
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts have kept trader consensus tightly clustered between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges. Sweeping tariffs implemented in 2025 continue to curb goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments that limit export gains, producing monthly deficits of 57–60 billion dollars so far in 2026. Year-to-date figures show a sharp improvement versus the prior year, yet broader economic recovery, dollar movements, and potential new trade agreements introduce offsetting pressures that could push the full-year total higher. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate gradual narrowing as import growth slows relative to exports, but uncertainty over further tariff enforcement and global demand keeps the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,985Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts have kept trader consensus tightly clustered between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges. Sweeping tariffs implemented in 2025 continue to curb goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments that limit export gains, producing monthly deficits of 57–60 billion dollars so far in 2026. Year-to-date figures show a sharp improvement versus the prior year, yet broader economic recovery, dollar movements, and potential new trade agreements introduce offsetting pressures that could push the full-year total higher. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate gradual narrowing as import growth slows relative to exports, but uncertainty over further tariff enforcement and global demand keeps the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$20,985Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts have kept trader consensus tightly clustered between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges. Sweeping tariffs implemented in 2025 continue to curb goods imports while prompting supply-chain adjustments that limit export gains, producing monthly deficits of 57–60 billion dollars so far in 2026. Year-to-date figures show a sharp improvement versus the prior year, yet broader economic recovery, dollar movements, and potential new trade agreements introduce offsetting pressures that could push the full-year total higher. Congressional Budget Office projections anticipate gradual narrowing as import growth slows relative to exports, but uncertainty over further tariff enforcement and global demand keeps the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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