Trader consensus reflects sustained US-China diplomatic engagement, including strengthened military-to-military channels described as the strongest in years and an upcoming Xi-Trump summit, alongside reduced Chinese air incursions near Taiwan and internal PLA leadership purges that have disrupted readiness. Ongoing South China Sea frictions remain limited to proxy actions with the Philippines and non-lethal measures such as shadowing drills, without direct US involvement that would trigger escalation thresholds. The compressed window until 2027 further lowers odds of a major clash. Late developments that could still shift probabilities include an accidental collision during naval operations, rapid deterioration following the summit, or miscalculation in the space domain amid recent mutual accusations over orbital weapons.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et la Chine avant 2027 ?
Oui
3% chance
$211,307 Vol.
$211,307 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$211,307 Vol.
$211,307 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects sustained US-China diplomatic engagement, including strengthened military-to-military channels described as the strongest in years and an upcoming Xi-Trump summit, alongside reduced Chinese air incursions near Taiwan and internal PLA leadership purges that have disrupted readiness. Ongoing South China Sea frictions remain limited to proxy actions with the Philippines and non-lethal measures such as shadowing drills, without direct US involvement that would trigger escalation thresholds. The compressed window until 2027 further lowers odds of a major clash. Late developments that could still shift probabilities include an accidental collision during naval operations, rapid deterioration following the summit, or miscalculation in the space domain amid recent mutual accusations over orbital weapons.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$211,307Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects sustained US-China diplomatic engagement, including strengthened military-to-military channels described as the strongest in years and an upcoming Xi-Trump summit, alongside reduced Chinese air incursions near Taiwan and internal PLA leadership purges that have disrupted readiness. Ongoing South China Sea frictions remain limited to proxy actions with the Philippines and non-lethal measures such as shadowing drills, without direct US involvement that would trigger escalation thresholds. The compressed window until 2027 further lowers odds of a major clash. Late developments that could still shift probabilities include an accidental collision during naval operations, rapid deterioration following the summit, or miscalculation in the space domain amid recent mutual accusations over orbital weapons.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$211,307Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects sustained US-China diplomatic engagement, including strengthened military-to-military channels described as the strongest in years and an upcoming Xi-Trump summit, alongside reduced Chinese air incursions near Taiwan and internal PLA leadership purges that have disrupted readiness. Ongoing South China Sea frictions remain limited to proxy actions with the Philippines and non-lethal measures such as shadowing drills, without direct US involvement that would trigger escalation thresholds. The compressed window until 2027 further lowers odds of a major clash. Late developments that could still shift probabilities include an accidental collision during naval operations, rapid deterioration following the summit, or miscalculation in the space domain amid recent mutual accusations over orbital weapons.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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