Despite ongoing tensions fueled by President Trump’s repeated public statements threatening action against Cuba and recent executive orders imposing sanctions on nations supplying oil to Havana, U.S. officials have stated that no imminent military operation is under active consideration as of early May 2026. Pentagon planning for potential contingencies has advanced alongside increased U.S. surveillance flights near Cuban airspace, yet these steps appear aimed at signaling resolve and supporting economic pressure rather than triggering direct confrontation. Diplomatic channels remain open, with reports of high-level talks in Havana, while congressional efforts to require authorization for any force have been blocked. This combination of restrained official posture and preference for non-kinetic measures has shaped the current trader consensus favoring no military clash through the end of 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAffrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Affrontement militaire entre les États-Unis et Cuba en 2026 ?
Oui
$109,439 Vol.
$109,439 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$109,439 Vol.
$109,439 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite ongoing tensions fueled by President Trump’s repeated public statements threatening action against Cuba and recent executive orders imposing sanctions on nations supplying oil to Havana, U.S. officials have stated that no imminent military operation is under active consideration as of early May 2026. Pentagon planning for potential contingencies has advanced alongside increased U.S. surveillance flights near Cuban airspace, yet these steps appear aimed at signaling resolve and supporting economic pressure rather than triggering direct confrontation. Diplomatic channels remain open, with reports of high-level talks in Havana, while congressional efforts to require authorization for any force have been blocked. This combination of restrained official posture and preference for non-kinetic measures has shaped the current trader consensus favoring no military clash through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$109,439Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite ongoing tensions fueled by President Trump’s repeated public statements threatening action against Cuba and recent executive orders imposing sanctions on nations supplying oil to Havana, U.S. officials have stated that no imminent military operation is under active consideration as of early May 2026. Pentagon planning for potential contingencies has advanced alongside increased U.S. surveillance flights near Cuban airspace, yet these steps appear aimed at signaling resolve and supporting economic pressure rather than triggering direct confrontation. Diplomatic channels remain open, with reports of high-level talks in Havana, while congressional efforts to require authorization for any force have been blocked. This combination of restrained official posture and preference for non-kinetic measures has shaped the current trader consensus favoring no military clash through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$109,439Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing tensions fueled by President Trump’s repeated public statements threatening action against Cuba and recent executive orders imposing sanctions on nations supplying oil to Havana, U.S. officials have stated that no imminent military operation is under active consideration as of early May 2026. Pentagon planning for potential contingencies has advanced alongside increased U.S. surveillance flights near Cuban airspace, yet these steps appear aimed at signaling resolve and supporting economic pressure rather than triggering direct confrontation. Diplomatic channels remain open, with reports of high-level talks in Havana, while congressional efforts to require authorization for any force have been blocked. This combination of restrained official posture and preference for non-kinetic measures has shaped the current trader consensus favoring no military clash through the end of 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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