The 72.5% trader consensus against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31 stems from the absence of acute diplomatic ruptures capable of triggering persona non grata declarations. Recent frictions, such as March 2026 summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and alliance alignments plus early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier in the year produced no reciprocal foreign expulsions, consistent with historical patterns where such steps require crises like espionage or military escalation. Ongoing Middle East ceasefire negotiations and African policy tensions remain key variables, yet no confirmed escalations or scheduled events currently signal an expulsion before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$15,172 Vol.
$15,172 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$15,172 Vol.
$15,172 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 72.5% trader consensus against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31 stems from the absence of acute diplomatic ruptures capable of triggering persona non grata declarations. Recent frictions, such as March 2026 summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and alliance alignments plus early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier in the year produced no reciprocal foreign expulsions, consistent with historical patterns where such steps require crises like espionage or military escalation. Ongoing Middle East ceasefire negotiations and African policy tensions remain key variables, yet no confirmed escalations or scheduled events currently signal an expulsion before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$15,172Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 72.5% trader consensus against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31 stems from the absence of acute diplomatic ruptures capable of triggering persona non grata declarations. Recent frictions, such as March 2026 summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and alliance alignments plus early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier in the year produced no reciprocal foreign expulsions, consistent with historical patterns where such steps require crises like espionage or military escalation. Ongoing Middle East ceasefire negotiations and African policy tensions remain key variables, yet no confirmed escalations or scheduled events currently signal an expulsion before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15,172Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 72.5% trader consensus against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31 stems from the absence of acute diplomatic ruptures capable of triggering persona non grata declarations. Recent frictions, such as March 2026 summonses in South Africa over judicial comments and alliance alignments plus early-May calls in Lebanon tied to Hezbollah statements, de-escalated through direct engagement rather than severance. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls completed earlier in the year produced no reciprocal foreign expulsions, consistent with historical patterns where such steps require crises like espionage or military escalation. Ongoing Middle East ceasefire negotiations and African policy tensions remain key variables, yet no confirmed escalations or scheduled events currently signal an expulsion before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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