US officials, including senior military leaders and anonymous sources cited by AP on May 7, have affirmed no imminent military action or invasion preparations against Cuba despite President Trump's rhetorical threats of a "friendly takeover" and references to post-Iran operations. Trader consensus at 76.5% for "No" reflects this gap between hawkish statements and actions, prioritizing an escalated sanctions campaign—including a May 1 executive order targeting Cuba's energy, defense, and financial sectors for repression and national security threats—alongside surging reconnaissance flights since February and conditional humanitarian aid offers. Diplomatic talks in Havana on April 10 yielded no breakthroughs, but economic pressure amid Cuba's energy crisis remains the dominant foreign policy tool, with no evident troop buildups or logistical shifts signaling invasion by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$1,977,236 Vol.
$1,977,236 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$1,977,236 Vol.
$1,977,236 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US officials, including senior military leaders and anonymous sources cited by AP on May 7, have affirmed no imminent military action or invasion preparations against Cuba despite President Trump's rhetorical threats of a "friendly takeover" and references to post-Iran operations. Trader consensus at 76.5% for "No" reflects this gap between hawkish statements and actions, prioritizing an escalated sanctions campaign—including a May 1 executive order targeting Cuba's energy, defense, and financial sectors for repression and national security threats—alongside surging reconnaissance flights since February and conditional humanitarian aid offers. Diplomatic talks in Havana on April 10 yielded no breakthroughs, but economic pressure amid Cuba's energy crisis remains the dominant foreign policy tool, with no evident troop buildups or logistical shifts signaling invasion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,977,236Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US officials, including senior military leaders and anonymous sources cited by AP on May 7, have affirmed no imminent military action or invasion preparations against Cuba despite President Trump's rhetorical threats of a "friendly takeover" and references to post-Iran operations. Trader consensus at 76.5% for "No" reflects this gap between hawkish statements and actions, prioritizing an escalated sanctions campaign—including a May 1 executive order targeting Cuba's energy, defense, and financial sectors for repression and national security threats—alongside surging reconnaissance flights since February and conditional humanitarian aid offers. Diplomatic talks in Havana on April 10 yielded no breakthroughs, but economic pressure amid Cuba's energy crisis remains the dominant foreign policy tool, with no evident troop buildups or logistical shifts signaling invasion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$1,977,236Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US officials, including senior military leaders and anonymous sources cited by AP on May 7, have affirmed no imminent military action or invasion preparations against Cuba despite President Trump's rhetorical threats of a "friendly takeover" and references to post-Iran operations. Trader consensus at 76.5% for "No" reflects this gap between hawkish statements and actions, prioritizing an escalated sanctions campaign—including a May 1 executive order targeting Cuba's energy, defense, and financial sectors for repression and national security threats—alongside surging reconnaissance flights since February and conditional humanitarian aid offers. Diplomatic talks in Havana on April 10 yielded no breakthroughs, but economic pressure amid Cuba's energy crisis remains the dominant foreign policy tool, with no evident troop buildups or logistical shifts signaling invasion by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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