Ongoing U.S. pressure on Cuba through expanded sanctions, a July 2026 State Department report on alleged subversion, and earlier Pentagon planning discussions has coincided with stalled negotiations and the absence of mass protests or regime collapse on the island. Competing demands from the protracted conflict with Iran, Venezuelan developments, and the approach of U.S. midterms have diverted attention and military resources, while senior officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have tempered expectations of rapid change. These factors have reinforced trader consensus that a full-scale U.S. invasion remains improbable through the end of 2026, despite elevated bilateral tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
8% chance
$3,268,644 Vol.
$3,268,644 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
8% chance
$3,268,644 Vol.
$3,268,644 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S. pressure on Cuba through expanded sanctions, a July 2026 State Department report on alleged subversion, and earlier Pentagon planning discussions has coincided with stalled negotiations and the absence of mass protests or regime collapse on the island. Competing demands from the protracted conflict with Iran, Venezuelan developments, and the approach of U.S. midterms have diverted attention and military resources, while senior officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have tempered expectations of rapid change. These factors have reinforced trader consensus that a full-scale U.S. invasion remains improbable through the end of 2026, despite elevated bilateral tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,268,644Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S. pressure on Cuba through expanded sanctions, a July 2026 State Department report on alleged subversion, and earlier Pentagon planning discussions has coincided with stalled negotiations and the absence of mass protests or regime collapse on the island. Competing demands from the protracted conflict with Iran, Venezuelan developments, and the approach of U.S. midterms have diverted attention and military resources, while senior officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have tempered expectations of rapid change. These factors have reinforced trader consensus that a full-scale U.S. invasion remains improbable through the end of 2026, despite elevated bilateral tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$3,268,644Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S. pressure on Cuba through expanded sanctions, a July 2026 State Department report on alleged subversion, and earlier Pentagon planning discussions has coincided with stalled negotiations and the absence of mass protests or regime collapse on the island. Competing demands from the protracted conflict with Iran, Venezuelan developments, and the approach of U.S. midterms have diverted attention and military resources, while senior officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have tempered expectations of rapid change. These factors have reinforced trader consensus that a full-scale U.S. invasion remains improbable through the end of 2026, despite elevated bilateral tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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