Recent National Hurricane Center analyses show Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly on August 27 but rapidly degenerated into an open tropical wave by August 28–29 amid strong wind shear and unfavorable upper-level conditions that disrupted its closed circulation. Official forecasts project continued weakening or dissipation as the remnants move quickly westward at 20–25 mph toward the Leeward Islands, with redevelopment odds at just 10% over the next seven days and sustained winds unlikely to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This hostile environment, including dry air entrainment and limited time over sufficiently warm waters before land interaction or further shear, underpins the 93% market-implied probability that Dolly will not intensify to hurricane strength. While model consensus supports dissipation, an unexpected reduction in shear could allow reorganization in rare cases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa tempête tropicale Dolly se transformera-t-elle en ouragan ?
La tempête tropicale Dolly se transformera-t-elle en ouragan ?
Oui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 sept. 2026
Oui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Recent National Hurricane Center analyses show Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly on August 27 but rapidly degenerated into an open tropical wave by August 28–29 amid strong wind shear and unfavorable upper-level conditions that disrupted its closed circulation. Official forecasts project continued weakening or dissipation as the remnants move quickly westward at 20–25 mph toward the Leeward Islands, with redevelopment odds at just 10% over the next seven days and sustained winds unlikely to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This hostile environment, including dry air entrainment and limited time over sufficiently warm waters before land interaction or further shear, underpins the 93% market-implied probability that Dolly will not intensify to hurricane strength. While model consensus supports dissipation, an unexpected reduction in shear could allow reorganization in rare cases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$290Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Recent National Hurricane Center analyses show Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly on August 27 but rapidly degenerated into an open tropical wave by August 28–29 amid strong wind shear and unfavorable upper-level conditions that disrupted its closed circulation. Official forecasts project continued weakening or dissipation as the remnants move quickly westward at 20–25 mph toward the Leeward Islands, with redevelopment odds at just 10% over the next seven days and sustained winds unlikely to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This hostile environment, including dry air entrainment and limited time over sufficiently warm waters before land interaction or further shear, underpins the 93% market-implied probability that Dolly will not intensify to hurricane strength. While model consensus supports dissipation, an unexpected reduction in shear could allow reorganization in rare cases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$290Date de fin
4 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent National Hurricane Center analyses show Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly on August 27 but rapidly degenerated into an open tropical wave by August 28–29 amid strong wind shear and unfavorable upper-level conditions that disrupted its closed circulation. Official forecasts project continued weakening or dissipation as the remnants move quickly westward at 20–25 mph toward the Leeward Islands, with redevelopment odds at just 10% over the next seven days and sustained winds unlikely to reach the 74 mph hurricane threshold on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This hostile environment, including dry air entrainment and limited time over sufficiently warm waters before land interaction or further shear, underpins the 93% market-implied probability that Dolly will not intensify to hurricane strength. While model consensus supports dissipation, an unexpected reduction in shear could allow reorganization in rare cases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes