Traders assign a 96.4% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting broad consensus on the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of acute catalysts in his current term. Second-term dynamics, including institutional norms around completing electoral mandates and limited recent developments in health disclosures, legal proceedings, or party pressure, reinforce expectations that he will serve through the period. Comparable past cases show resignations typically require extraordinary circumstances such as imminent removal or severe incapacity. Still, low-probability shifts remain possible from unforeseen medical events, significant scandals prompting congressional action, or abrupt changes in personal or political calculations before the end of 2026.