Recent inflation data showing a steady 6.0% annual rate in July 2026, driven by sharp gasoline price surges to 25.9% amid Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, has tempered expectations for aggressive easing by the Bank of Russia. Underlying inflation measures remain near 4–5%, and the central bank has signaled a cautious approach following its July 25-basis-point cut to 14%, citing temporary factors alongside risks from expansionary fiscal policy and supply constraints. This environment supports trader consensus favoring no change at the September meeting, with only a moderate probability assigned to an additional reduction given decelerating lending and moderate economic growth. A rate increase stays a low-probability outlier absent further escalation in price pressures.