Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models position 32°C as the leading outcome for Beijing’s August 17 maximum, with 31–33°C capturing most probability mass. Late-summer conditions feature a weakening subtropical high, residual East Asian monsoon moisture, and scattered thundershowers that limit daytime insolation and enhance boundary-layer mixing, capping afternoon highs near seasonal norms of 30–31°C. Model consensus shows only modest day-to-day variability, keeping lower and higher extremes at low implied odds while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C. Official resolution will rely on standardized surface observations at Beijing stations.