Recent ensemble forecasts from major global weather models have clustered Moscow's expected maximum temperature for May 18 between 27 °C and 29 °C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds with 29 °C leading at 33 percent. This range reflects a warm anomaly well above the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20 °C at VDNKh station, supported by southerly flow advecting warmer air masses and limited cloud cover that favors daytime heating. Official guidance from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and European model runs show modest uncertainty in exact peak values due to subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow 27–29 °C window most heavily while assigning lower probability to extremes outside this consensus band.