Persistent Sharav conditions, characterized by strong easterly winds transporting hot, dry continental air across the eastern Mediterranean, are driving the market’s 78.5% implied probability for a Tel Aviv high of 35 °C or higher on May 17. Recent runs from the Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF show these winds suppressing sea-breeze cooling through midday while clear skies accelerate surface heating, consistent with a multi-day heatwave peaking along the coastal plain. Traders are weighting these model signals heavily because historical analogs under similar spring Sharav setups routinely produce afternoon maxima in the mid-30s °C range. Minor residual uncertainty centers on exact timing of any late-day marine air intrusion that could cap the peak near 34 °C.