Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Deutscher Wetterdienst models show Munich under a transitional low-pressure regime on May 19, with variable cloud cover and light southerly flows limiting daytime heating to peak values clustered between 16°C and 19°C. This tight market spread around the 18°C outcome at 31% implied probability reflects genuine model uncertainty in exact insolation and boundary-layer mixing rather than any single dominant driver. Climatologically, mid-May highs average near 18°C at Munich Airport, but scattered showers and reduced solar input could cap readings at 16–17°C while clearer intervals support 19°C. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities ahead of the observation window.