**Official forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration (CWA) currently project a daytime high of 35–36 °C for Taipei on August 17, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 35 °C (40.5 %) and 36 °C (27 %).** Late-August subtropical conditions—strong solar heating, light steering winds, and high humidity that reduces nighttime radiative cooling—support these values, while the typical monthly average high of ~32–34 °C provides climatological context. Recent CWA model runs and supporting international guidance show afternoon thundershowers as the main variable that could trim the peak by 1–2 °C or allow brief clearing that pushes readings toward the upper end of the range. With resolution imminent, traders have anchored probabilities on these verified agency forecasts rather than longer-range uncertainty, resulting in sharply declining odds outside the 34–37 °C band.