Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island and Mokha by mid-September 2026, have driven war-risk premiums to 0.5–1.0% of hull value and prompted selective avoidance by carriers, compressing Bab el-Mandeb transits. AIS and Kpler tracking show daily volumes averaging 21–28 commercial vessels in the week of September 14, with notable dips to the low 20s on several days amid attacks and Saudi-linked cargo reductions of roughly 50%. This environment supports the market-implied 64.5% probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits, as even modest recovery in containership and tanker movements remains well below pre-crisis baselines and vulnerable to further incidents. Upcoming catalysts include any escalation in naval escorts or additional Houthi restrictions that could further constrain flows.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया14 सितंबर के बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
14 सितंबर के बाब अल - मंडेब जलडमरूमध्य सप्ताह में कितने जहाज पारगमन करते हैं?
<170 68%
170-189 13%
190-209 10%
210-229 6%
$13,547 वॉल्यूम
$13,547 वॉल्यूम
20 सित, 2026
<170
67%
170-189
13%
190-209
10%
210-229
6%
230+
3%
<170 68%
170-189 13%
190-209 10%
210-229 6%
$13,547 वॉल्यूम
$13,547 वॉल्यूम
20 सित, 2026
<170
$5,270 वॉल्यूम
67%
170-189
$2,726 वॉल्यूम
13%
190-209
$2,706 वॉल्यूम
10%
210-229
$1,367 वॉल्यूम
6%
230+
$1,479 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island and Mokha by mid-September 2026, have driven war-risk premiums to 0.5–1.0% of hull value and prompted selective avoidance by carriers, compressing Bab el-Mandeb transits. AIS and Kpler tracking show daily volumes averaging 21–28 commercial vessels in the week of September 14, with notable dips to the low 20s on several days amid attacks and Saudi-linked cargo reductions of roughly 50%. This environment supports the market-implied 64.5% probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits, as even modest recovery in containership and tanker movements remains well below pre-crisis baselines and vulnerable to further incidents. Upcoming catalysts include any escalation in naval escorts or additional Houthi restrictions that could further constrain flows.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$13,547समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island and Mokha by mid-September 2026, have driven war-risk premiums to 0.5–1.0% of hull value and prompted selective avoidance by carriers, compressing Bab el-Mandeb transits. AIS and Kpler tracking show daily volumes averaging 21–28 commercial vessels in the week of September 14, with notable dips to the low 20s on several days amid attacks and Saudi-linked cargo reductions of roughly 50%. This environment supports the market-implied 64.5% probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits, as even modest recovery in containership and tanker movements remains well below pre-crisis baselines and vulnerable to further incidents. Upcoming catalysts include any escalation in naval escorts or additional Houthi restrictions that could further constrain flows.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
वॉल्यूम
$13,547समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island and Mokha by mid-September 2026, have driven war-risk premiums to 0.5–1.0% of hull value and prompted selective avoidance by carriers, compressing Bab el-Mandeb transits. AIS and Kpler tracking show daily volumes averaging 21–28 commercial vessels in the week of September 14, with notable dips to the low 20s on several days amid attacks and Saudi-linked cargo reductions of roughly 50%. This environment supports the market-implied 64.5% probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits, as even modest recovery in containership and tanker movements remains well below pre-crisis baselines and vulnerable to further incidents. Upcoming catalysts include any escalation in naval escorts or additional Houthi restrictions that could further constrain flows.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न