US intelligence assessments in early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months despite months of US-Israeli airstrikes, with satellite imagery from March showing heavy damage to the Taleghan nuclear test facility. IAEA reports note Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for potential weapons-grade material—but highlight limited agency access and no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations. Supreme Leader Khamenei's late April vow to safeguard nuclear assets underscores defensive posture amid sanctions and diplomacy stalemate. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects these technical barriers, historical fatwa against nuclear arms, and absent escalation signals, though regime shifts or covert advances could alter odds before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$192,049 वॉल्यूम
$192,049 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$192,049 वॉल्यूम
$192,049 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments in early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months despite months of US-Israeli airstrikes, with satellite imagery from March showing heavy damage to the Taleghan nuclear test facility. IAEA reports note Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for potential weapons-grade material—but highlight limited agency access and no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations. Supreme Leader Khamenei's late April vow to safeguard nuclear assets underscores defensive posture amid sanctions and diplomacy stalemate. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects these technical barriers, historical fatwa against nuclear arms, and absent escalation signals, though regime shifts or covert advances could alter odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$192,049समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments in early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months despite months of US-Israeli airstrikes, with satellite imagery from March showing heavy damage to the Taleghan nuclear test facility. IAEA reports note Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for potential weapons-grade material—but highlight limited agency access and no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations. Supreme Leader Khamenei's late April vow to safeguard nuclear assets underscores defensive posture amid sanctions and diplomacy stalemate. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects these technical barriers, historical fatwa against nuclear arms, and absent escalation signals, though regime shifts or covert advances could alter odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$192,049समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments in early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months despite months of US-Israeli airstrikes, with satellite imagery from March showing heavy damage to the Taleghan nuclear test facility. IAEA reports note Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for potential weapons-grade material—but highlight limited agency access and no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations. Supreme Leader Khamenei's late April vow to safeguard nuclear assets underscores defensive posture amid sanctions and diplomacy stalemate. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects these technical barriers, historical fatwa against nuclear arms, and absent escalation signals, though regime shifts or covert advances could alter odds before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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