Israel’s airspace decisions remain shaped by the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran’s subsequent missile and drone responses, which prompted an immediate broad closure to civilian flights. Regional security assessments by the Transport Ministry and Home Front Command continue to dictate operations, with limited or phased reopenings attempted amid persistent threats. EASA and other aviation authorities maintain caution advisories for Israeli and neighboring airspace through at least late June 2026 due to ongoing risks. Trader sentiment on future closures by specific dates reflects the balance between de-escalation signals, such as recent statements that flights are proceeding as scheduled, and the potential for renewed Iranian retaliation or Israeli preemptive actions. Scheduled security reviews and any fresh diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$14,784,163 वॉल्यूम
15 जून, 2026
June 14
1%
June 15
1%
30 जून
7%
$14,784,163 वॉल्यूम
June 14
$98,558 वॉल्यूम
1%
June 15
$4,905,985 वॉल्यूम
1%
30 जून
$2,087,967 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace decisions remain shaped by the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran’s subsequent missile and drone responses, which prompted an immediate broad closure to civilian flights. Regional security assessments by the Transport Ministry and Home Front Command continue to dictate operations, with limited or phased reopenings attempted amid persistent threats. EASA and other aviation authorities maintain caution advisories for Israeli and neighboring airspace through at least late June 2026 due to ongoing risks. Trader sentiment on future closures by specific dates reflects the balance between de-escalation signals, such as recent statements that flights are proceeding as scheduled, and the potential for renewed Iranian retaliation or Israeli preemptive actions. Scheduled security reviews and any fresh diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$14,784,163समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace decisions remain shaped by the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran’s subsequent missile and drone responses, which prompted an immediate broad closure to civilian flights. Regional security assessments by the Transport Ministry and Home Front Command continue to dictate operations, with limited or phased reopenings attempted amid persistent threats. EASA and other aviation authorities maintain caution advisories for Israeli and neighboring airspace through at least late June 2026 due to ongoing risks. Trader sentiment on future closures by specific dates reflects the balance between de-escalation signals, such as recent statements that flights are proceeding as scheduled, and the potential for renewed Iranian retaliation or Israeli preemptive actions. Scheduled security reviews and any fresh diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$14,784,163समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel’s airspace decisions remain shaped by the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran’s subsequent missile and drone responses, which prompted an immediate broad closure to civilian flights. Regional security assessments by the Transport Ministry and Home Front Command continue to dictate operations, with limited or phased reopenings attempted amid persistent threats. EASA and other aviation authorities maintain caution advisories for Israeli and neighboring airspace through at least late June 2026 due to ongoing risks. Trader sentiment on future closures by specific dates reflects the balance between de-escalation signals, such as recent statements that flights are proceeding as scheduled, and the potential for renewed Iranian retaliation or Israeli preemptive actions. Scheduled security reviews and any fresh diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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