US-brokered talks in Washington produced a 45-day extension of the April 16 ceasefire through late June, with follow-up negotiations scheduled for June 2-3 focused on security arrangements, full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, border demarcation, and Hezbollah disarmament. Israel has maintained a buffer zone along the Yellow Line and conducted ongoing airstrikes and limited ground operations, linking any pullback to verifiable reductions in Hezbollah military infrastructure south of the Litani River. Lebanese officials have pressed for complete withdrawal as a precondition for further progress, while reconstruction funding from Gulf states remains contingent on a stable truce. These factors have kept trader-assigned probabilities for withdrawal by the end of May or June low, reflecting the extended timeline required to address core security and disarmament conditions.