Trader consensus on no new pandemic in 2026 at 93.5% reflects the absence of any pathogen achieving sustained global transmission through mid-September, despite the WHO-declared public health emergency of international concern for the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows regional case clusters with case fatality ratios around 48% but limited cross-border spread and no evidence of efficient human-to-human chains meeting pandemic thresholds. Ongoing mpox transmission remains graded moderate risk, while other events like hantavirus clusters stay localized. A sudden shift in viral characteristics enabling wider dissemination before year-end or delayed reporting of a novel strain could still alter outcomes, though current epidemiological data and seasonal patterns support the prevailing market view.