No draft authorization has occurred in 2026, consistent with trader consensus at 95.5% for “No.” The US maintains an all-volunteer force under the Military Selective Service Act, and restoring conscription requires separate congressional legislation plus presidential approval to amend induction authority—steps not taken amid ongoing recruitment shortfalls but no national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Automatic Selective Service registration updates in the FY 2026 NDAA, effective December 2026, streamline database maintenance without triggering inductions. Absent major escalation in active conflicts or sudden manpower crises prompting floor votes, the structural and political barriers to authorization this year remain high. Late-year developments such as congressional action on defense policy could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
5% संभावना
$521,268 वॉल्यूम
$521,268 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
5% संभावना
$521,268 वॉल्यूम
$521,268 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No draft authorization has occurred in 2026, consistent with trader consensus at 95.5% for “No.” The US maintains an all-volunteer force under the Military Selective Service Act, and restoring conscription requires separate congressional legislation plus presidential approval to amend induction authority—steps not taken amid ongoing recruitment shortfalls but no national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Automatic Selective Service registration updates in the FY 2026 NDAA, effective December 2026, streamline database maintenance without triggering inductions. Absent major escalation in active conflicts or sudden manpower crises prompting floor votes, the structural and political barriers to authorization this year remain high. Late-year developments such as congressional action on defense policy could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$521,268समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No draft authorization has occurred in 2026, consistent with trader consensus at 95.5% for “No.” The US maintains an all-volunteer force under the Military Selective Service Act, and restoring conscription requires separate congressional legislation plus presidential approval to amend induction authority—steps not taken amid ongoing recruitment shortfalls but no national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Automatic Selective Service registration updates in the FY 2026 NDAA, effective December 2026, streamline database maintenance without triggering inductions. Absent major escalation in active conflicts or sudden manpower crises prompting floor votes, the structural and political barriers to authorization this year remain high. Late-year developments such as congressional action on defense policy could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$521,268समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No draft authorization has occurred in 2026, consistent with trader consensus at 95.5% for “No.” The US maintains an all-volunteer force under the Military Selective Service Act, and restoring conscription requires separate congressional legislation plus presidential approval to amend induction authority—steps not taken amid ongoing recruitment shortfalls but no national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Automatic Selective Service registration updates in the FY 2026 NDAA, effective December 2026, streamline database maintenance without triggering inductions. Absent major escalation in active conflicts or sudden manpower crises prompting floor votes, the structural and political barriers to authorization this year remain high. Late-year developments such as congressional action on defense policy could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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