**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% implied probability for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or executive actions proposing conscription reinstatement.** The US maintains an all-volunteer force since 1973, with Selective Service serving only as a dormant registration system requiring separate congressional authorization and presidential activation amid a national emergency—none of which has materialized despite global tensions like the US-Israel actions against Iran. Recent developments, including the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed in December 2025 mandating automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December 2026, merely streamline standby processes without enabling a draft. On May 14, bipartisan senators introduced legislation to abolish Selective Service entirely, underscoring minimal political appetite for escalation amid no reported mobilization needs.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$251,426 वॉल्यूम
$251,426 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$251,426 वॉल्यूम
$251,426 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% implied probability for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or executive actions proposing conscription reinstatement.** The US maintains an all-volunteer force since 1973, with Selective Service serving only as a dormant registration system requiring separate congressional authorization and presidential activation amid a national emergency—none of which has materialized despite global tensions like the US-Israel actions against Iran. Recent developments, including the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed in December 2025 mandating automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December 2026, merely streamline standby processes without enabling a draft. On May 14, bipartisan senators introduced legislation to abolish Selective Service entirely, underscoring minimal political appetite for escalation amid no reported mobilization needs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$251,426समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% implied probability for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or executive actions proposing conscription reinstatement.** The US maintains an all-volunteer force since 1973, with Selective Service serving only as a dormant registration system requiring separate congressional authorization and presidential activation amid a national emergency—none of which has materialized despite global tensions like the US-Israel actions against Iran. Recent developments, including the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed in December 2025 mandating automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December 2026, merely streamline standby processes without enabling a draft. On May 14, bipartisan senators introduced legislation to abolish Selective Service entirely, underscoring minimal political appetite for escalation amid no reported mobilization needs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$251,426समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% implied probability for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or executive actions proposing conscription reinstatement.** The US maintains an all-volunteer force since 1973, with Selective Service serving only as a dormant registration system requiring separate congressional authorization and presidential activation amid a national emergency—none of which has materialized despite global tensions like the US-Israel actions against Iran. Recent developments, including the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed in December 2025 mandating automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December 2026, merely streamline standby processes without enabling a draft. On May 14, bipartisan senators introduced legislation to abolish Selective Service entirely, underscoring minimal political appetite for escalation amid no reported mobilization needs.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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