Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to severely restrict Strait of Hormuz traffic, underpinning the 84% market-implied probability of no return to normal levels through 2026. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has maintained permit requirements, harassment, and attacks on vessels, with October 2026 seeing the highest weekly incident total since the crisis onset and daily strikes persisting into early October. US naval coordination and blockade elements have further limited transits, keeping AIS-visible commercial crossings at roughly 10% of the pre-crisis 80-plus daily average. While Gulf crude exports have partially adapted via bypass pipelines and some dark transits, reaching near pre-war volumes in select weeks, full normalization remains distant absent a diplomatic breakthrough. Upcoming catalysts include any escalation in incidents or renewed mediation efforts that could shift trader consensus on resolution timing.