Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming implied probability for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling consistently places him as the clear runner-up behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The Liberal Party’s July convention formally nominated the senator, consolidating much of the right-wing electorate behind Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsed successor while rival conservative contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in the low single digits. Lula’s own Workers’ Party convention and ongoing campaign launch have not altered the fragmented opposition landscape. Late-July and early-August surveys show Lula in the low-to-mid 40s and Flávio in the low-to-mid 30s, leaving little room for another candidate to overtake the PL standard-bearer before ballots are cast.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFlávio Bolsonaro 86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.1%
Renan Santos 5.5%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,886,692 Vol.
$4,886,692 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.1%
Renan Santos 5.5%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,886,692 Vol.
$4,886,692 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming implied probability for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling consistently places him as the clear runner-up behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The Liberal Party’s July convention formally nominated the senator, consolidating much of the right-wing electorate behind Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsed successor while rival conservative contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in the low single digits. Lula’s own Workers’ Party convention and ongoing campaign launch have not altered the fragmented opposition landscape. Late-July and early-August surveys show Lula in the low-to-mid 40s and Flávio in the low-to-mid 30s, leaving little room for another candidate to overtake the PL standard-bearer before ballots are cast.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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