Recent moderation in core inflation, with the July 2026 reading at 2.5% year-over-year after a 2.6% June print, underpins the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 2.3–2.4% for August. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a further dip to roughly 2.38% amid softening shelter and goods components, while broader disinflation trends and fading tariff effects support trader expectations for continued easing. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have limited spillover into core measures, keeping the distribution narrow. The August CPI release on September 11 will resolve the market, with labor-market data and any FOMC signals serving as key near-term inputs to these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui2.4% 40%
2.3% 36%
2.5% 20%
2.6% 4.0%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
≤2.0%
1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
4%
2.3%
36%
2.4%
40%
2.5%
20%
2.6%
4%
2.7%
4%
2.8%
3%
≥2.9%
1%
2.4% 40%
2.3% 36%
2.5% 20%
2.6% 4.0%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
≤2.0%
$335 Vol.
1%
2.1%
$274 Vol.
<1%
2.2%
$375 Vol.
4%
2.3%
$373 Vol.
36%
2.4%
$2,125 Vol.
40%
2.5%
$226 Vol.
20%
2.6%
$878 Vol.
4%
2.7%
$753 Vol.
4%
2.8%
$881 Vol.
3%
≥2.9%
$421 Vol.
1%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent moderation in core inflation, with the July 2026 reading at 2.5% year-over-year after a 2.6% June print, underpins the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 2.3–2.4% for August. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a further dip to roughly 2.38% amid softening shelter and goods components, while broader disinflation trends and fading tariff effects support trader expectations for continued easing. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have limited spillover into core measures, keeping the distribution narrow. The August CPI release on September 11 will resolve the market, with labor-market data and any FOMC signals serving as key near-term inputs to these probabilities.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Volume
$6,642Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent moderation in core inflation, with the July 2026 reading at 2.5% year-over-year after a 2.6% June print, underpins the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 2.3–2.4% for August. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a further dip to roughly 2.38% amid softening shelter and goods components, while broader disinflation trends and fading tariff effects support trader expectations for continued easing. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have limited spillover into core measures, keeping the distribution narrow. The August CPI release on September 11 will resolve the market, with labor-market data and any FOMC signals serving as key near-term inputs to these probabilities.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$6,642Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in core inflation, with the July 2026 reading at 2.5% year-over-year after a 2.6% June print, underpins the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 2.3–2.4% for August. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a further dip to roughly 2.38% amid softening shelter and goods components, while broader disinflation trends and fading tariff effects support trader expectations for continued easing. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have limited spillover into core measures, keeping the distribution narrow. The August CPI release on September 11 will resolve the market, with labor-market data and any FOMC signals serving as key near-term inputs to these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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