Recent July core PCE data printed in line with consensus at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Fed’s 2% target and highlighting sticky services prices alongside resilient consumer spending. With August’s release still weeks away, trader-implied odds remain tightly contested between a 0.2% and 0.3% outcome, reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying inflation pressures will reaccelerate or moderate amid mixed high-frequency indicators and potential seasonal effects. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market and retail-sales releases, any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the September FOMC meeting, and broader risk sentiment influencing market-implied policy paths. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning rather than forecasts, underscoring the range of plausible resolutions given the current data trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0.3% 38%
0.2% 37%
0.1% 12%
0.4% 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
4%
0.0%
4%
0.1%
12%
0.2%
37%
0.3%
38%
0.4%
12%
0.5%+
5%
0.3% 38%
0.2% 37%
0.1% 12%
0.4% 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
$37 Vol.
4%
0.0%
$37 Vol.
4%
0.1%
$57 Vol.
12%
0.2%
$602 Vol.
37%
0.3%
$457 Vol.
38%
0.4%
$110 Vol.
12%
0.5%+
$128 Vol.
5%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July core PCE data printed in line with consensus at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Fed’s 2% target and highlighting sticky services prices alongside resilient consumer spending. With August’s release still weeks away, trader-implied odds remain tightly contested between a 0.2% and 0.3% outcome, reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying inflation pressures will reaccelerate or moderate amid mixed high-frequency indicators and potential seasonal effects. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market and retail-sales releases, any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the September FOMC meeting, and broader risk sentiment influencing market-implied policy paths. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning rather than forecasts, underscoring the range of plausible resolutions given the current data trajectory.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,427Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July core PCE data printed in line with consensus at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Fed’s 2% target and highlighting sticky services prices alongside resilient consumer spending. With August’s release still weeks away, trader-implied odds remain tightly contested between a 0.2% and 0.3% outcome, reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying inflation pressures will reaccelerate or moderate amid mixed high-frequency indicators and potential seasonal effects. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market and retail-sales releases, any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the September FOMC meeting, and broader risk sentiment influencing market-implied policy paths. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning rather than forecasts, underscoring the range of plausible resolutions given the current data trajectory.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,427Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July core PCE data printed in line with consensus at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, marking the 65th consecutive month above the Fed’s 2% target and highlighting sticky services prices alongside resilient consumer spending. With August’s release still weeks away, trader-implied odds remain tightly contested between a 0.2% and 0.3% outcome, reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying inflation pressures will reaccelerate or moderate amid mixed high-frequency indicators and potential seasonal effects. Key swing factors include upcoming labor-market and retail-sales releases, any shifts in Fed communications ahead of the September FOMC meeting, and broader risk sentiment influencing market-implied policy paths. These probabilities aggregate real-capital positioning rather than forecasts, underscoring the range of plausible resolutions given the current data trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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