Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover over Luzon are the main drivers keeping Manila's September 7 high temperature odds clustered tightly around 29–31 °C. Persistent moisture, moderate southwesterly winds, and frequent showers or thunderstorms reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, preventing the surface from reaching the higher end of the seasonal range. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows daily maxima generally 28–31 °C, consistent with the historical September average high near 31 °C at Ninoy Aquino International Airport but tempered by current convective patterns. The narrow spread in market-implied probabilities reflects uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of rainfall, which can shift the peak by 1–2 °C depending on whether clearing occurs before or after the daily maximum. Updated model runs and the final PAGASA bulletin before September 7 will provide the last key inputs for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Manila on September 7?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 7?
30°C 22%
29°C 22%
31°C 21%
27°C 17%
BARU
BARU
Sep 7, 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
3%
26°C
12%
27°C
17%
28°C
13%
29°C
22%
30°C
22%
31°C
21%
32°C
13%
33°C or higher
2%
30°C 22%
29°C 22%
31°C 21%
27°C 17%
BARU
BARU
Sep 7, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
3%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
12%
27°C
$0 Vol.
17%
28°C
$0 Vol.
13%
29°C
$0 Vol.
22%
30°C
$6 Vol.
22%
31°C
$50 Vol.
21%
32°C
$0 Vol.
13%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover over Luzon are the main drivers keeping Manila's September 7 high temperature odds clustered tightly around 29–31 °C. Persistent moisture, moderate southwesterly winds, and frequent showers or thunderstorms reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, preventing the surface from reaching the higher end of the seasonal range. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows daily maxima generally 28–31 °C, consistent with the historical September average high near 31 °C at Ninoy Aquino International Airport but tempered by current convective patterns. The narrow spread in market-implied probabilities reflects uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of rainfall, which can shift the peak by 1–2 °C depending on whether clearing occurs before or after the daily maximum. Updated model runs and the final PAGASA bulletin before September 7 will provide the last key inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 5, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$56Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 5, 2026, 12:59 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover over Luzon are the main drivers keeping Manila's September 7 high temperature odds clustered tightly around 29–31 °C. Persistent moisture, moderate southwesterly winds, and frequent showers or thunderstorms reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, preventing the surface from reaching the higher end of the seasonal range. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows daily maxima generally 28–31 °C, consistent with the historical September average high near 31 °C at Ninoy Aquino International Airport but tempered by current convective patterns. The narrow spread in market-implied probabilities reflects uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of rainfall, which can shift the peak by 1–2 °C depending on whether clearing occurs before or after the daily maximum. Updated model runs and the final PAGASA bulletin before September 7 will provide the last key inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$56Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 5, 2026, 12:59 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover over Luzon are the main drivers keeping Manila's September 7 high temperature odds clustered tightly around 29–31 °C. Persistent moisture, moderate southwesterly winds, and frequent showers or thunderstorms reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, preventing the surface from reaching the higher end of the seasonal range. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows daily maxima generally 28–31 °C, consistent with the historical September average high near 31 °C at Ninoy Aquino International Airport but tempered by current convective patterns. The narrow spread in market-implied probabilities reflects uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of rainfall, which can shift the peak by 1–2 °C depending on whether clearing occurs before or after the daily maximum. Updated model runs and the final PAGASA bulletin before September 7 will provide the last key inputs for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan