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icon for Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 atau lebih pada 30 Juni?
Iklim & Sains·Weather

Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 atau lebih pada 30 Juni?

icon for Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 atau lebih pada 30 Juni?
Iklim & Sains·Weather

Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 atau lebih pada 30 Juni?

$1,854,431 Vol.

Polymarket

$1,854,431 Vol.

7

$289,143 Vol.

16%

8+

$551,702 Vol.

84%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones has produced five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, including events in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan. This early pace aligns with the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events annually, positioning the year to reach or exceed eight total by June 30 under typical variability. Seismicity follows a Poisson distribution marked by clustering and quiet intervals, with the current lull since late April adding uncertainty about near-term acceleration. Continued USGS monitoring of major fault systems will clarify whether activity resumes at historical rates or remains subdued through the June 30 resolution window.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,854,431
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones has produced five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, including events in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan. This early pace aligns with the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events annually, positioning the year to reach or exceed eight total by June 30 under typical variability. Seismicity follows a Poisson distribution marked by clustering and quiet intervals, with the current lull since late April adding uncertainty about near-term acceleration. Continued USGS monitoring of major fault systems will clarify whether activity resumes at historical rates or remains subdued through the June 30 resolution window.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,854,431
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 atau lebih pada 30 Juni?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "8+" di 84%, diikuti oleh "7" di 16%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 84¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 84% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 atau lebih pada 30 Juni?" telah menghasilkan $1.9 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 4, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 atau lebih pada 30 Juni?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 atau lebih pada 30 Juni?" adalah "8+" di 84%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 84% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "7" di 16%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Berapa banyak gempa bumi 7,0 atau lebih pada 30 Juni?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.