Persistent El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific continue to suppress Atlantic hurricane development through elevated vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability, limiting intensification despite the seasonal peak approaching in September. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have formed, none reaching hurricane strength (74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale), yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of just 3.1. NOAA’s August update maintains a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season, consistent with Colorado State University’s forecast of around four. These factors underpin trader preference for the closely matched 4–6 and 1–3 bins, with uncertainty centered on whether late-season steering patterns and any weakening of El Niño could allow additional systems to organize before November 30.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
4-6 46%
1-3 41%
7+ 7%
0 7%
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
0
7%
1-3
41%
4-6
47%
7+
18%
4-6 46%
1-3 41%
7+ 7%
0 7%
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
0
$233 Vol.
7%
1-3
$310 Vol.
41%
4-6
$335 Vol.
47%
7+
$125 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Persistent El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific continue to suppress Atlantic hurricane development through elevated vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability, limiting intensification despite the seasonal peak approaching in September. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have formed, none reaching hurricane strength (74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale), yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of just 3.1. NOAA’s August update maintains a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season, consistent with Colorado State University’s forecast of around four. These factors underpin trader preference for the closely matched 4–6 and 1–3 bins, with uncertainty centered on whether late-season steering patterns and any weakening of El Niño could allow additional systems to organize before November 30.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$1,002Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Persistent El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific continue to suppress Atlantic hurricane development through elevated vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability, limiting intensification despite the seasonal peak approaching in September. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have formed, none reaching hurricane strength (74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale), yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of just 3.1. NOAA’s August update maintains a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season, consistent with Colorado State University’s forecast of around four. These factors underpin trader preference for the closely matched 4–6 and 1–3 bins, with uncertainty centered on whether late-season steering patterns and any weakening of El Niño could allow additional systems to organize before November 30.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$1,002Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific continue to suppress Atlantic hurricane development through elevated vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability, limiting intensification despite the seasonal peak approaching in September. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have formed, none reaching hurricane strength (74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale), yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy of just 3.1. NOAA’s August update maintains a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season, consistent with Colorado State University’s forecast of around four. These factors underpin trader preference for the closely matched 4–6 and 1–3 bins, with uncertainty centered on whether late-season steering patterns and any weakening of El Niño could allow additional systems to organize before November 30.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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