Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and prior military strikes on enrichment sites like Natanz and Fordow have left Iran's program degraded, with no resumption of uranium enrichment reported since 2025 and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Tehran to forgo nuclear weapons and avoid further expansion. Iran's historical insistence on retaining domestic enrichment rights as a core negotiating position, combined with unresolved IAEA verification disputes and the tight timeline to September 30, underpins trader consensus that a formal agreement to fully end the activity remains unlikely. Key upcoming diplomatic contacts or shifts in sanctions relief could still alter the near-term trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
3% peluang
$62,705 Vol.
$62,705 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
3% peluang
$62,705 Vol.
$62,705 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and prior military strikes on enrichment sites like Natanz and Fordow have left Iran's program degraded, with no resumption of uranium enrichment reported since 2025 and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Tehran to forgo nuclear weapons and avoid further expansion. Iran's historical insistence on retaining domestic enrichment rights as a core negotiating position, combined with unresolved IAEA verification disputes and the tight timeline to September 30, underpins trader consensus that a formal agreement to fully end the activity remains unlikely. Key upcoming diplomatic contacts or shifts in sanctions relief could still alter the near-term trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$62,705Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and prior military strikes on enrichment sites like Natanz and Fordow have left Iran's program degraded, with no resumption of uranium enrichment reported since 2025 and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Tehran to forgo nuclear weapons and avoid further expansion. Iran's historical insistence on retaining domestic enrichment rights as a core negotiating position, combined with unresolved IAEA verification disputes and the tight timeline to September 30, underpins trader consensus that a formal agreement to fully end the activity remains unlikely. Key upcoming diplomatic contacts or shifts in sanctions relief could still alter the near-term trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62,705Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and prior military strikes on enrichment sites like Natanz and Fordow have left Iran's program degraded, with no resumption of uranium enrichment reported since 2025 and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding committing Tehran to forgo nuclear weapons and avoid further expansion. Iran's historical insistence on retaining domestic enrichment rights as a core negotiating position, combined with unresolved IAEA verification disputes and the tight timeline to September 30, underpins trader consensus that a formal agreement to fully end the activity remains unlikely. Key upcoming diplomatic contacts or shifts in sanctions relief could still alter the near-term trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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