Iran's partial reopening of its eastern airspace and limited resumption of commercial operations in late April 2026 followed nearly seven weeks of broad closure triggered by the US-Israel military campaign against Iranian targets that began February 28. Regional tensions, including Iranian missile and drone responses plus involvement of neighboring states, have kept aviation authorities cautious despite the phased four-stage restoration plan. These developments sustain trader focus on whether renewed broad suspension of flights across Iranian FIRs will occur before late May deadlines amid unresolved conflict dynamics and shifting diplomatic postures.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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