Ongoing U.S.-mediated security talks, including the June 2026 trilateral framework agreement on Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, and Hezbollah disarmament, have produced limited border and prisoner measures but explicitly exclude diplomatic normalization. Lebanese officials, including the prime minister and president, have rejected state-to-state recognition as premature, while Hezbollah leadership has denounced the accord and continued low-level attacks that prompted Israeli strikes into August 2026. Domestic constraints in Lebanon, including Hezbollah's retained military influence ahead of parliamentary dynamics and public resistance to ending the state of war, sustain trader consensus reflected in the 92% "No" pricing that official relations remain improbable before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.