Incumbent House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) anchors trader consensus at 89.5% for a Republican win in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, a solidly red battleground wrapping Shreveport with consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Johnson's February qualification for reelection drew minimal opposition—two fellow Republicans and two Democrats—reflecting weak challengers ahead of tomorrow's May 16 primary election under Louisiana's all-party blanket primary system, where the top two advance if no majority is reached. Absent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages in safe seats like this sustain high Republican implied probabilities through the November 3 general election, though late developments could theoretically narrow the gap.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLA-04 House Election Winner
LA-04 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
11%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$840 Vol.
90%
Democratic Party
$913 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) anchors trader consensus at 89.5% for a Republican win in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, a solidly red battleground wrapping Shreveport with consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Johnson's February qualification for reelection drew minimal opposition—two fellow Republicans and two Democrats—reflecting weak challengers ahead of tomorrow's May 16 primary election under Louisiana's all-party blanket primary system, where the top two advance if no majority is reached. Absent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages in safe seats like this sustain high Republican implied probabilities through the November 3 general election, though late developments could theoretically narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$1,753Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) anchors trader consensus at 89.5% for a Republican win in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, a solidly red battleground wrapping Shreveport with consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Johnson's February qualification for reelection drew minimal opposition—two fellow Republicans and two Democrats—reflecting weak challengers ahead of tomorrow's May 16 primary election under Louisiana's all-party blanket primary system, where the top two advance if no majority is reached. Absent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages in safe seats like this sustain high Republican implied probabilities through the November 3 general election, though late developments could theoretically narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,753Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) anchors trader consensus at 89.5% for a Republican win in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, a solidly red battleground wrapping Shreveport with consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Johnson's February qualification for reelection drew minimal opposition—two fellow Republicans and two Democrats—reflecting weak challengers ahead of tomorrow's May 16 primary election under Louisiana's all-party blanket primary system, where the top two advance if no majority is reached. Absent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages in safe seats like this sustain high Republican implied probabilities through the November 3 general election, though late developments could theoretically narrow the gap.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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