Recent National Weather Service and private forecast models converge on an overnight low in the upper 50s for San Francisco on August 29, driven by persistent west-to-southwest onshore flow and a stable marine layer that limits radiative cooling while maintaining dew points near 55 °F. This climatologically typical pattern, reinforced by current 10-day guidance showing highs near 64 °F and light-to-moderate westerly winds, positions 56–57 °F as the modal outcome and explains its 39 % market-implied probability. Traders appear to discount lower-tail scenarios below 54 °F absent an unexpected high-pressure ridge or clear-sky radiative surge, while the modest probabilities attached to 58–59 °F reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing ahead of the final evening forecast update.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 29?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 29?
50-51°F 49%
49°F or below 43%
56-57°F 40%
58-59°F 28%
BARU
BARU
Aug 29, 2026
49°F or below
43%
50-51°F
49%
52-53°F
26%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
40%
58-59°F
28%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
20%
68°F or higher
1%
50-51°F 49%
49°F or below 43%
56-57°F 40%
58-59°F 28%
BARU
BARU
Aug 29, 2026
49°F or below
$5 Vol.
43%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
49%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
26%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
26%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
40%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
28%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
26%
62-63°F
$5 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$5 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$135 Vol.
20%
68°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private forecast models converge on an overnight low in the upper 50s for San Francisco on August 29, driven by persistent west-to-southwest onshore flow and a stable marine layer that limits radiative cooling while maintaining dew points near 55 °F. This climatologically typical pattern, reinforced by current 10-day guidance showing highs near 64 °F and light-to-moderate westerly winds, positions 56–57 °F as the modal outcome and explains its 39 % market-implied probability. Traders appear to discount lower-tail scenarios below 54 °F absent an unexpected high-pressure ridge or clear-sky radiative surge, while the modest probabilities attached to 58–59 °F reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing ahead of the final evening forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$160Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private forecast models converge on an overnight low in the upper 50s for San Francisco on August 29, driven by persistent west-to-southwest onshore flow and a stable marine layer that limits radiative cooling while maintaining dew points near 55 °F. This climatologically typical pattern, reinforced by current 10-day guidance showing highs near 64 °F and light-to-moderate westerly winds, positions 56–57 °F as the modal outcome and explains its 39 % market-implied probability. Traders appear to discount lower-tail scenarios below 54 °F absent an unexpected high-pressure ridge or clear-sky radiative surge, while the modest probabilities attached to 58–59 °F reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing ahead of the final evening forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$160Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private forecast models converge on an overnight low in the upper 50s for San Francisco on August 29, driven by persistent west-to-southwest onshore flow and a stable marine layer that limits radiative cooling while maintaining dew points near 55 °F. This climatologically typical pattern, reinforced by current 10-day guidance showing highs near 64 °F and light-to-moderate westerly winds, positions 56–57 °F as the modal outcome and explains its 39 % market-implied probability. Traders appear to discount lower-tail scenarios below 54 °F absent an unexpected high-pressure ridge or clear-sky radiative surge, while the modest probabilities attached to 58–59 °F reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing ahead of the final evening forecast update.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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