**Recent forecasts indicate overnight lows in Shenzhen on August 29 will likely settle near 26–27°C amid persistent high humidity near 90% and light variable winds under 5 m/s.** Subtropical monsoon conditions, combined with residual cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms from the preceding day’s activity, limit radiational cooling after sunset, keeping minimum temperatures close to the seasonal average of 25–27°C for late August. Model consensus from regional forecasts shows minor variations in exact timing of any clearing or rainfall, which directly influences the overnight minimum and explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25°C and 27°C. Higher or lower outcomes remain possible if convective activity or wind shifts alter the heat budget overnight, though probabilities drop sharply outside the 24–30°C range.