Major institutions including the Conference Board, Goldman Sachs, and S&P Global project 2.1-2.6% U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, driven by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies as consumer spending moderates but remains supported by household wealth. This outlook aligns with Q2 data showing continued expansion near potential, a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.5%, and Fed policy holding rates steady amid contained inflation. Trader consensus at 96% against negative growth reflects these verified fundamentals and the low base rate for full-year contraction. Tail risks include sharper energy price spikes from geopolitical escalation or unexpected tariff-driven inflation forcing tighter policy that could tip quarterly readings negative.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% peluang
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
4% peluang
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Major institutions including the Conference Board, Goldman Sachs, and S&P Global project 2.1-2.6% U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, driven by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies as consumer spending moderates but remains supported by household wealth. This outlook aligns with Q2 data showing continued expansion near potential, a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.5%, and Fed policy holding rates steady amid contained inflation. Trader consensus at 96% against negative growth reflects these verified fundamentals and the low base rate for full-year contraction. Tail risks include sharper energy price spikes from geopolitical escalation or unexpected tariff-driven inflation forcing tighter policy that could tip quarterly readings negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 29, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Major institutions including the Conference Board, Goldman Sachs, and S&P Global project 2.1-2.6% U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, driven by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies as consumer spending moderates but remains supported by household wealth. This outlook aligns with Q2 data showing continued expansion near potential, a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.5%, and Fed policy holding rates steady amid contained inflation. Trader consensus at 96% against negative growth reflects these verified fundamentals and the low base rate for full-year contraction. Tail risks include sharper energy price spikes from geopolitical escalation or unexpected tariff-driven inflation forcing tighter policy that could tip quarterly readings negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 29, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major institutions including the Conference Board, Goldman Sachs, and S&P Global project 2.1-2.6% U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, driven by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies as consumer spending moderates but remains supported by household wealth. This outlook aligns with Q2 data showing continued expansion near potential, a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.5%, and Fed policy holding rates steady amid contained inflation. Trader consensus at 96% against negative growth reflects these verified fundamentals and the low base rate for full-year contraction. Tail risks include sharper energy price spikes from geopolitical escalation or unexpected tariff-driven inflation forcing tighter policy that could tip quarterly readings negative.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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