The high "No" probability reflects Pete Hegseth's established position within the Trump administration, with no major confirmation challenges, policy disputes, or resignation pressures emerging in recent months. Cabinet stability, ongoing Department of Defense priorities on military readiness and border security, and the absence of Senate holds or public calls for removal have reinforced trader expectations that he will remain through the June 30 resolution window. Historical patterns of defense secretaries serving full terms absent acute crises further align with current pricing. Late developments such as a sudden ethics investigation, significant legislative setback, or direct presidential decision could still shift the outcome before the deadline.