Recent U.S. indictments charging Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya with cartel-related drug trafficking and bribery prompted his May 2 announcement of a temporary leave of absence to address the allegations. State lawmakers quickly approved the step-down and installed Yeraldine Bonilla Valverde as interim governor, creating immediate uncertainty over whether Rocha’s absence will become permanent before the May 31 deadline. Because the departure was framed as temporary and no final removal or resignation has been formalized, traders assign higher probability to Rocha potentially resuming duties or the situation remaining unresolved within the narrow remaining window, supporting the current 61.4 percent implied chance the market resolves to “No.”