Recent polls for São Paulo’s two Senate seats show a fragmented field where Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles trade narrow leads in the first-preference vote, leaving the identity of the second-place finisher highly uncertain. With roughly seven weeks until the October 4 election, candidate positioning, coalition negotiations, and turnout among center-right and environmentalist voters remain fluid, preventing any single contender from consolidating a clear advantage. Trader pricing for second place mirrors this volatility, assigning comparable probabilities across the top half-dozen names and reflecting the wisdom of crowds on polling volatility and late momentum shifts typical in multi-seat Brazilian Senate races.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGuilherme Derrite 23%
Petter Maahs 22%
Simone Tebet 20%
Marina Silva 15%
BARU
BARU
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
23%
Petter Maahs
22%
Simone Tebet
23%
Marina Silva
15%
Weller Gonçalves
11%
André do Prado
10%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
9%
Salles
9%
Geraldo Rufino
9%
Soninha Francine
8%
Marcio Alves
8%
Maíra de Souza
7%
Ednelson Cesaretti
6%
William Teixeira
6%
Guilherme Derrite 23%
Petter Maahs 22%
Simone Tebet 20%
Marina Silva 15%
BARU
BARU
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
$134 Vol.
23%
Petter Maahs
$38 Vol.
22%
Simone Tebet
$123 Vol.
23%
Marina Silva
$123 Vol.
15%
Weller Gonçalves
$38 Vol.
11%
André do Prado
$78 Vol.
10%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$58 Vol.
9%
Salles
$58 Vol.
9%
Geraldo Rufino
$56 Vol.
9%
Soninha Francine
$70 Vol.
8%
Marcio Alves
$58 Vol.
8%
Maíra de Souza
$49 Vol.
7%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$71 Vol.
6%
William Teixeira
$81 Vol.
6%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls for São Paulo’s two Senate seats show a fragmented field where Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles trade narrow leads in the first-preference vote, leaving the identity of the second-place finisher highly uncertain. With roughly seven weeks until the October 4 election, candidate positioning, coalition negotiations, and turnout among center-right and environmentalist voters remain fluid, preventing any single contender from consolidating a clear advantage. Trader pricing for second place mirrors this volatility, assigning comparable probabilities across the top half-dozen names and reflecting the wisdom of crowds on polling volatility and late momentum shifts typical in multi-seat Brazilian Senate races.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$1,038Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls for São Paulo’s two Senate seats show a fragmented field where Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles trade narrow leads in the first-preference vote, leaving the identity of the second-place finisher highly uncertain. With roughly seven weeks until the October 4 election, candidate positioning, coalition negotiations, and turnout among center-right and environmentalist voters remain fluid, preventing any single contender from consolidating a clear advantage. Trader pricing for second place mirrors this volatility, assigning comparable probabilities across the top half-dozen names and reflecting the wisdom of crowds on polling volatility and late momentum shifts typical in multi-seat Brazilian Senate races.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,038Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for São Paulo’s two Senate seats show a fragmented field where Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles trade narrow leads in the first-preference vote, leaving the identity of the second-place finisher highly uncertain. With roughly seven weeks until the October 4 election, candidate positioning, coalition negotiations, and turnout among center-right and environmentalist voters remain fluid, preventing any single contender from consolidating a clear advantage. Trader pricing for second place mirrors this volatility, assigning comparable probabilities across the top half-dozen names and reflecting the wisdom of crowds on polling volatility and late momentum shifts typical in multi-seat Brazilian Senate races.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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