Recent US Drought Monitor data show exceptional (D4) drought covering about 1.5% of the contiguous United States amid widespread conditions affecting 44 states at D1 or worse. Flash drought degradations in the South-Central region, combined with persistent long-term deficits in parts of the Plains, Northeast, and Southeast, represent the primary catalyst supporting elevated market-implied odds for 10 or more states reaching D4 by the week of September 15. Official assessments note mixed changes, with localized improvements in Colorado and Wyoming offset by intensifying dryness along the North Dakota–Minnesota border and in northern New England. The next USDM update, incorporating soil moisture, streamflow, and precipitation observations through mid-September, along with any late-summer rainfall shifts, will directly influence whether D4 expands across additional states or remains limited.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
10 or more states 80%
5-6 states 30%
3-4 states 22%
7-9 states 22%
BARU
BARU
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
1%
1-2 states
21%
3-4 states
22%
5-6 states
30%
7-9 states
22%
10 or more states
80%
10 or more states 80%
5-6 states 30%
3-4 states 22%
7-9 states 22%
BARU
BARU
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
$21 Vol.
1%
1-2 states
$0 Vol.
21%
3-4 states
$0 Vol.
22%
5-6 states
$0 Vol.
30%
7-9 states
$0 Vol.
22%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent US Drought Monitor data show exceptional (D4) drought covering about 1.5% of the contiguous United States amid widespread conditions affecting 44 states at D1 or worse. Flash drought degradations in the South-Central region, combined with persistent long-term deficits in parts of the Plains, Northeast, and Southeast, represent the primary catalyst supporting elevated market-implied odds for 10 or more states reaching D4 by the week of September 15. Official assessments note mixed changes, with localized improvements in Colorado and Wyoming offset by intensifying dryness along the North Dakota–Minnesota border and in northern New England. The next USDM update, incorporating soil moisture, streamflow, and precipitation observations through mid-September, along with any late-summer rainfall shifts, will directly influence whether D4 expands across additional states or remains limited.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$21Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent US Drought Monitor data show exceptional (D4) drought covering about 1.5% of the contiguous United States amid widespread conditions affecting 44 states at D1 or worse. Flash drought degradations in the South-Central region, combined with persistent long-term deficits in parts of the Plains, Northeast, and Southeast, represent the primary catalyst supporting elevated market-implied odds for 10 or more states reaching D4 by the week of September 15. Official assessments note mixed changes, with localized improvements in Colorado and Wyoming offset by intensifying dryness along the North Dakota–Minnesota border and in northern New England. The next USDM update, incorporating soil moisture, streamflow, and precipitation observations through mid-September, along with any late-summer rainfall shifts, will directly influence whether D4 expands across additional states or remains limited.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$21Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent US Drought Monitor data show exceptional (D4) drought covering about 1.5% of the contiguous United States amid widespread conditions affecting 44 states at D1 or worse. Flash drought degradations in the South-Central region, combined with persistent long-term deficits in parts of the Plains, Northeast, and Southeast, represent the primary catalyst supporting elevated market-implied odds for 10 or more states reaching D4 by the week of September 15. Official assessments note mixed changes, with localized improvements in Colorado and Wyoming offset by intensifying dryness along the North Dakota–Minnesota border and in northern New England. The next USDM update, incorporating soil moisture, streamflow, and precipitation observations through mid-September, along with any late-summer rainfall shifts, will directly influence whether D4 expands across additional states or remains limited.
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