Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran centers on a proposed one-page framework memorandum that could pause Gulf hostilities, ease certain U.S. sanctions, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while deferring detailed nuclear restrictions to follow-on talks. These developments, reported in early May 2026 amid extended ceasefires and mediator involvement from Pakistan and Oman, build on earlier April proposals and reflect the Trump administration’s push for verifiable limits on uranium enrichment beyond the prior JCPOA terms. Traders assign the “Yes” outcome a 58.5 percent implied probability because these steps signal a structured path toward an agreement within the 2026 window, though gaps remain on enrichment caps, stockpile handling, and long-term monitoring. Ongoing negotiations continue to shape this consensus, with any breakthrough or renewed impasse likely to shift probabilities ahead of the 2027 deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiYa
$1,334,299 Vol.
$1,334,299 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ya
$1,334,299 Vol.
$1,334,299 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran centers on a proposed one-page framework memorandum that could pause Gulf hostilities, ease certain U.S. sanctions, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while deferring detailed nuclear restrictions to follow-on talks. These developments, reported in early May 2026 amid extended ceasefires and mediator involvement from Pakistan and Oman, build on earlier April proposals and reflect the Trump administration’s push for verifiable limits on uranium enrichment beyond the prior JCPOA terms. Traders assign the “Yes” outcome a 58.5 percent implied probability because these steps signal a structured path toward an agreement within the 2026 window, though gaps remain on enrichment caps, stockpile handling, and long-term monitoring. Ongoing negotiations continue to shape this consensus, with any breakthrough or renewed impasse likely to shift probabilities ahead of the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$1,334,299Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran centers on a proposed one-page framework memorandum that could pause Gulf hostilities, ease certain U.S. sanctions, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while deferring detailed nuclear restrictions to follow-on talks. These developments, reported in early May 2026 amid extended ceasefires and mediator involvement from Pakistan and Oman, build on earlier April proposals and reflect the Trump administration’s push for verifiable limits on uranium enrichment beyond the prior JCPOA terms. Traders assign the “Yes” outcome a 58.5 percent implied probability because these steps signal a structured path toward an agreement within the 2026 window, though gaps remain on enrichment caps, stockpile handling, and long-term monitoring. Ongoing negotiations continue to shape this consensus, with any breakthrough or renewed impasse likely to shift probabilities ahead of the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,334,299Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran centers on a proposed one-page framework memorandum that could pause Gulf hostilities, ease certain U.S. sanctions, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while deferring detailed nuclear restrictions to follow-on talks. These developments, reported in early May 2026 amid extended ceasefires and mediator involvement from Pakistan and Oman, build on earlier April proposals and reflect the Trump administration’s push for verifiable limits on uranium enrichment beyond the prior JCPOA terms. Traders assign the “Yes” outcome a 58.5 percent implied probability because these steps signal a structured path toward an agreement within the 2026 window, though gaps remain on enrichment caps, stockpile handling, and long-term monitoring. Ongoing negotiations continue to shape this consensus, with any breakthrough or renewed impasse likely to shift probabilities ahead of the 2027 deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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