President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to programs by Russia, China, and others remains the central driver of trader positioning on whether an explosive test occurs by late 2026. Implementation has stayed in the assessment phase, with senior officials confirming in March 2026 that no decisions have been made on format or timeline and that full underground explosive testing has not been ruled out. Technical readiness poses major barriers, as the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a multi-year preparation window for underground tests and has received limited dedicated funding. Low market probabilities reflect these logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic constraints, though renewed congressional funding, explicit presidential follow-through, or verified foreign test activity could alter the outlook before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUji coba nuklir AS oleh...?
Uji coba nuklir AS oleh...?
$770,068 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
30 September 2026
1%
31 Desember 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
30 September 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 Desember 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to programs by Russia, China, and others remains the central driver of trader positioning on whether an explosive test occurs by late 2026. Implementation has stayed in the assessment phase, with senior officials confirming in March 2026 that no decisions have been made on format or timeline and that full underground explosive testing has not been ruled out. Technical readiness poses major barriers, as the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a multi-year preparation window for underground tests and has received limited dedicated funding. Low market probabilities reflect these logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic constraints, though renewed congressional funding, explicit presidential follow-through, or verified foreign test activity could alter the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$770,068Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to programs by Russia, China, and others remains the central driver of trader positioning on whether an explosive test occurs by late 2026. Implementation has stayed in the assessment phase, with senior officials confirming in March 2026 that no decisions have been made on format or timeline and that full underground explosive testing has not been ruled out. Technical readiness poses major barriers, as the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a multi-year preparation window for underground tests and has received limited dedicated funding. Low market probabilities reflect these logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic constraints, though renewed congressional funding, explicit presidential follow-through, or verified foreign test activity could alter the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$770,068Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to programs by Russia, China, and others remains the central driver of trader positioning on whether an explosive test occurs by late 2026. Implementation has stayed in the assessment phase, with senior officials confirming in March 2026 that no decisions have been made on format or timeline and that full underground explosive testing has not been ruled out. Technical readiness poses major barriers, as the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a multi-year preparation window for underground tests and has received limited dedicated funding. Low market probabilities reflect these logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic constraints, though renewed congressional funding, explicit presidential follow-through, or verified foreign test activity could alter the outlook before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan