Canada’s federal government sharply reduced temporary resident targets in its 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new arrivals to 385,000 from 673,650 the prior year while holding permanent resident admissions near 380,000. This policy, continued from 2024–2025 adjustments aimed at easing housing and infrastructure pressures, has produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents. Statistics Canada data already recorded quarterly population declines through late 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, marking the first annual drop since Confederation. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or negative growth for 2026 overall as non-permanent resident numbers fall further toward the 5% population target. These confirmed reductions in inflows and ongoing outflows underpin trader consensus that 2026 will see the largest single-year decline on record.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
84% peluang
BARU
BARU
Apr 30, 2027
84% peluang
BARU
BARU
Apr 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government sharply reduced temporary resident targets in its 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new arrivals to 385,000 from 673,650 the prior year while holding permanent resident admissions near 380,000. This policy, continued from 2024–2025 adjustments aimed at easing housing and infrastructure pressures, has produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents. Statistics Canada data already recorded quarterly population declines through late 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, marking the first annual drop since Confederation. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or negative growth for 2026 overall as non-permanent resident numbers fall further toward the 5% population target. These confirmed reductions in inflows and ongoing outflows underpin trader consensus that 2026 will see the largest single-year decline on record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$1,813Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s federal government sharply reduced temporary resident targets in its 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new arrivals to 385,000 from 673,650 the prior year while holding permanent resident admissions near 380,000. This policy, continued from 2024–2025 adjustments aimed at easing housing and infrastructure pressures, has produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents. Statistics Canada data already recorded quarterly population declines through late 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, marking the first annual drop since Confederation. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or negative growth for 2026 overall as non-permanent resident numbers fall further toward the 5% population target. These confirmed reductions in inflows and ongoing outflows underpin trader consensus that 2026 will see the largest single-year decline on record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,813Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s federal government sharply reduced temporary resident targets in its 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, cutting new arrivals to 385,000 from 673,650 the prior year while holding permanent resident admissions near 380,000. This policy, continued from 2024–2025 adjustments aimed at easing housing and infrastructure pressures, has produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents. Statistics Canada data already recorded quarterly population declines through late 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, marking the first annual drop since Confederation. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or negative growth for 2026 overall as non-permanent resident numbers fall further toward the 5% population target. These confirmed reductions in inflows and ongoing outflows underpin trader consensus that 2026 will see the largest single-year decline on record.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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