Skip to main content
icon for Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
Politik·Trump

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

icon for Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
Politik·Trump

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

4% peluang
Polymarket

$23,782 Vol.

4% peluang
Polymarket

$23,782 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a Greenland independence vote in 2026 at just 3.9% likelihood, driven by the absence of any scheduled referendum from the Inatsisartut parliament under the 2009 Self-Government Act, which requires legislative initiation and Danish negotiations. The March 2025 Greenlandic election installed a Democrats-led coalition favoring gradual autonomy over swift separation, sidelining faster-track parties like Inuit Ataqatigiit. January 2026 statements from Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen reaffirmed ties to Denmark amid U.S. acquisition pressures, while Naleraq's single Danish Folketing seat offers minimal leverage. Economic reliance on Danish block grants further dampens urgency. Shifts could arise from snap elections, coalition collapse, or resource windfalls enabling self-sufficiency by year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$23,782
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a Greenland independence vote in 2026 at just 3.9% likelihood, driven by the absence of any scheduled referendum from the Inatsisartut parliament under the 2009 Self-Government Act, which requires legislative initiation and Danish negotiations. The March 2025 Greenlandic election installed a Democrats-led coalition favoring gradual autonomy over swift separation, sidelining faster-track parties like Inuit Ataqatigiit. January 2026 statements from Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen reaffirmed ties to Denmark amid U.S. acquisition pressures, while Naleraq's single Danish Folketing seat offers minimal leverage. Economic reliance on Danish block grants further dampens urgency. Shifts could arise from snap elections, coalition collapse, or resource windfalls enabling self-sufficiency by year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$23,782
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 4% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 4¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 4% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $23.8K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 12, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?" adalah 4% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 4% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.