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icon for Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?
Geopolitik·Timur Tengah

Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?

icon for Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?
Geopolitik·Timur Tengah

Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Ya

30% peluang
Polymarket

$28,538,766 Vol.

Ya

30% peluang
Polymarket

$28,538,766 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent US military operations against Iran have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted special operations rather than large-scale ground forces. The administration has pursued maximum pressure through sanctions, limited raids, and diplomatic leverage amid stalled nuclear talks, consistent with reluctance to repeat the costs of prior occupations. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Iran's ceasefire proposal has kept tensions elevated without shifting to full invasion planning. Pentagon assessments continue to favor contained actions over occupation, while traders weigh these constraints and historical patterns against any escalation risks through 2026. This sustains the market's 70.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$28,538,766
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent US military operations against Iran have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted special operations rather than large-scale ground forces. The administration has pursued maximum pressure through sanctions, limited raids, and diplomatic leverage amid stalled nuclear talks, consistent with reluctance to repeat the costs of prior occupations. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Iran's ceasefire proposal has kept tensions elevated without shifting to full invasion planning. Pentagon assessments continue to favor contained actions over occupation, while traders weigh these constraints and historical patterns against any escalation risks through 2026. This sustains the market's 70.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$28,538,899
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Apakah AS akan menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" di 30%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 30¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 30% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" telah menghasilkan $28.5 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" adalah "Apakah AS akan menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" di 30%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 30% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.