Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60% implied probability for Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI in the 2.5–2.7% range, closely tracking the Central Bank's latest REM survey median forecast of 2.6% (top-10 analysts at 2.7%), released May 7. This positioning reflects optimism for disinflation resuming after March's unexpected 3.4% print—the highest in a year—driven by regulated price adjustments and seasonal factors, amid Milei's fiscal surplus and monetary contraction shrinking money supply at double-digit rates. Lower buckets like 2.2–2.4% (23%) and 2.8–3.0% (18%) capture uncertainty around food prices and utility pass-throughs, with INDEC's official release due mid-May as the key catalyst. Annual inflation holds at 32.6% y/y, down sharply from prior peaks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato2.5–2.7% 53%
2.2–2.4% 39%
2.8–3.0% 10%
3.1–3.3% 3.9%
$11,912 Vol.
$11,912 Vol.
14 mag 2026
≤2.1%
1%
2.2–2.4%
24%
2.5–2.7%
70%
2.8–3.0%
10%
3.1–3.3%
4%
3.4–3.6%
<1%
3.7–3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
2.5–2.7% 53%
2.2–2.4% 39%
2.8–3.0% 10%
3.1–3.3% 3.9%
$11,912 Vol.
$11,912 Vol.
14 mag 2026
≤2.1%
$1,610 Vol.
1%
2.2–2.4%
$1,456 Vol.
24%
2.5–2.7%
$963 Vol.
70%
2.8–3.0%
$2,081 Vol.
10%
3.1–3.3%
$1,846 Vol.
4%
3.4–3.6%
$1,220 Vol.
<1%
3.7–3.9%
$1,756 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$980 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60% implied probability for Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI in the 2.5–2.7% range, closely tracking the Central Bank's latest REM survey median forecast of 2.6% (top-10 analysts at 2.7%), released May 7. This positioning reflects optimism for disinflation resuming after March's unexpected 3.4% print—the highest in a year—driven by regulated price adjustments and seasonal factors, amid Milei's fiscal surplus and monetary contraction shrinking money supply at double-digit rates. Lower buckets like 2.2–2.4% (23%) and 2.8–3.0% (18%) capture uncertainty around food prices and utility pass-throughs, with INDEC's official release due mid-May as the key catalyst. Annual inflation holds at 32.6% y/y, down sharply from prior peaks.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Apr 20, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$11,912Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 20, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60% implied probability for Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI in the 2.5–2.7% range, closely tracking the Central Bank's latest REM survey median forecast of 2.6% (top-10 analysts at 2.7%), released May 7. This positioning reflects optimism for disinflation resuming after March's unexpected 3.4% print—the highest in a year—driven by regulated price adjustments and seasonal factors, amid Milei's fiscal surplus and monetary contraction shrinking money supply at double-digit rates. Lower buckets like 2.2–2.4% (23%) and 2.8–3.0% (18%) capture uncertainty around food prices and utility pass-throughs, with INDEC's official release due mid-May as the key catalyst. Annual inflation holds at 32.6% y/y, down sharply from prior peaks.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$11,912Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 20, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60% implied probability for Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI in the 2.5–2.7% range, closely tracking the Central Bank's latest REM survey median forecast of 2.6% (top-10 analysts at 2.7%), released May 7. This positioning reflects optimism for disinflation resuming after March's unexpected 3.4% print—the highest in a year—driven by regulated price adjustments and seasonal factors, amid Milei's fiscal surplus and monetary contraction shrinking money supply at double-digit rates. Lower buckets like 2.2–2.4% (23%) and 2.8–3.0% (18%) capture uncertainty around food prices and utility pass-throughs, with INDEC's official release due mid-May as the key catalyst. Annual inflation holds at 32.6% y/y, down sharply from prior peaks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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