**Ongoing US-Iran conflict has kept Strait of Hormuz traffic at minimal levels, driving the 92% market-implied probability for an average of 0-20 ships transiting by end-August.** Since joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026 triggered effective closure of the vital oil and LNG chokepoint, daily transits have collapsed from a pre-war norm of roughly 60–100 vessels to single-digit or low-teen counts. Recent tracking data show just 1–9 ships on multiple days in mid-August, with no crude oil movements visible on some dates and overall August averages stuck well below 12. Shipowners continue rerouting around Africa or employing shadow-fleet tactics, while military activity and competing claims over maritime security sustain the blockade-like conditions. This environment leaves little room for a rapid rebound before month-end. The dominant trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game recognition that any sustained uptick would require a verifiable de-escalation or formal reopening agreement—developments that remain elusive despite intermittent diplomatic signals. A breakthrough ceasefire or coordinated mine-clearance and escort regime could lift volumes toward the 20–40 band, but such outcomes appear low-probability in the narrow remaining window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-20 92%
20-40 7%
40-60 2.1%
60-80 <1%
$60,114 Vol.
$60,114 Vol.
31 ago 2026
0-20
92%
20-40
7%
40-60
2%
60-80
<1%
80+
<1%
0-20 92%
20-40 7%
40-60 2.1%
60-80 <1%
$60,114 Vol.
$60,114 Vol.
31 ago 2026
0-20
$26,177 Vol.
92%
20-40
$9,813 Vol.
7%
40-60
$9,215 Vol.
2%
60-80
$6,921 Vol.
<1%
80+
$7,989 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict has kept Strait of Hormuz traffic at minimal levels, driving the 92% market-implied probability for an average of 0-20 ships transiting by end-August.**
Since joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026 triggered effective closure of the vital oil and LNG chokepoint, daily transits have collapsed from a pre-war norm of roughly 60–100 vessels to single-digit or low-teen counts. Recent tracking data show just 1–9 ships on multiple days in mid-August, with no crude oil movements visible on some dates and overall August averages stuck well below 12. Shipowners continue rerouting around Africa or employing shadow-fleet tactics, while military activity and competing claims over maritime security sustain the blockade-like conditions.
This environment leaves little room for a rapid rebound before month-end. The dominant trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game recognition that any sustained uptick would require a verifiable de-escalation or formal reopening agreement—developments that remain elusive despite intermittent diplomatic signals. A breakthrough ceasefire or coordinated mine-clearance and escort regime could lift volumes toward the 20–40 band, but such outcomes appear low-probability in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$60,114Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict has kept Strait of Hormuz traffic at minimal levels, driving the 92% market-implied probability for an average of 0-20 ships transiting by end-August.**
Since joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026 triggered effective closure of the vital oil and LNG chokepoint, daily transits have collapsed from a pre-war norm of roughly 60–100 vessels to single-digit or low-teen counts. Recent tracking data show just 1–9 ships on multiple days in mid-August, with no crude oil movements visible on some dates and overall August averages stuck well below 12. Shipowners continue rerouting around Africa or employing shadow-fleet tactics, while military activity and competing claims over maritime security sustain the blockade-like conditions.
This environment leaves little room for a rapid rebound before month-end. The dominant trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game recognition that any sustained uptick would require a verifiable de-escalation or formal reopening agreement—developments that remain elusive despite intermittent diplomatic signals. A breakthrough ceasefire or coordinated mine-clearance and escort regime could lift volumes toward the 20–40 band, but such outcomes appear low-probability in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$60,114Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing US-Iran conflict has kept Strait of Hormuz traffic at minimal levels, driving the 92% market-implied probability for an average of 0-20 ships transiting by end-August.** Since joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026 triggered effective closure of the vital oil and LNG chokepoint, daily transits have collapsed from a pre-war norm of roughly 60–100 vessels to single-digit or low-teen counts. Recent tracking data show just 1–9 ships on multiple days in mid-August, with no crude oil movements visible on some dates and overall August averages stuck well below 12. Shipowners continue rerouting around Africa or employing shadow-fleet tactics, while military activity and competing claims over maritime security sustain the blockade-like conditions. This environment leaves little room for a rapid rebound before month-end. The dominant trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game recognition that any sustained uptick would require a verifiable de-escalation or formal reopening agreement—developments that remain elusive despite intermittent diplomatic signals. A breakthrough ceasefire or coordinated mine-clearance and escort regime could lift volumes toward the 20–40 band, but such outcomes appear low-probability in the narrow remaining window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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