Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
CDU leads trader consensus for the September 2026 Berlin state election due to its position as incumbent in the current CDU-SPD coalition and stronger polling averages ahead of the September 20 vote. Recent state election results elsewhere in Germany have shown CDU resilience in forming coalitions while SPD support has declined sharply. Grüne gains reflect voter shifts toward environmental priorities in urban districts, while AfD and Linke hold steady bases that could fragment the outcome and complicate majority formation. SPD weakness stems from national trends and local governance fatigue, keeping its implied win probability low. The fragmented field and 130-seat threshold mean no party is assured a majority, with coalition negotiations likely to determine the final governing arrangement after results.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
CDU leads trader consensus for the September 2026 Berlin state election due to its position as incumbent in the current CDU-SPD coalition and stronger polling averages ahead of the September 20 vote. Recent state election results elsewhere in Germany have shown CDU resilience in forming coalitions while SPD support has declined sharply. Grüne gains reflect voter shifts toward environmental priorities in urban districts, while AfD and Linke hold steady bases that could fragment the outcome and complicate majority formation. SPD weakness stems from national trends and local governance fatigue, keeping its implied win probability low. The fragmented field and 130-seat threshold mean no party is assured a majority, with coalition negotiations likely to determine the final governing arrangement after results.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
May 10 2026
AfD candidate René Stadtkewitz wins first directly elected full-time mayor position in Brandenburg
AfD rises to 19%2%
The AfD’s symbolic local victory with Stadtkewitz’s direct mayoral win in Brandenburg was hailed as a momentum signal for upcoming Berlin elections, slightly boosting market confidence.
May 9 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag finalizes election program
SPD dips to 7%3%
The final program adoption did not significantly improve market confidence, possibly due to perceived lack of breakthrough policies or broader coalition challenges.
May 8 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag scheduled to finalize election program on May 8-9
SPD rises to 10%3%
Anticipation of the final program adoption gave a slight boost to SPD's market
May 7 2026
Latest PolitPro poll places Grüne at 16.6%, behind CDU and AfD but ahead of SPD, indicating stable but limited growth
Grüne rises to 22%3%
Recent polling data confirmed Grüne's position as a significant but not leading force, supporting a modest upward.
Apr 28 2026
AfD hits 51% in Berlin opinion polls but faces entrenched center-right and left coalitions
AfD jumps to 17%7%
AfD briefly peaked in Berlin polls at 51%, reflecting a surge in popularity, but persistent skepticism and strong coalitions limited further gains, causing volatile market reactions.
Apr 25 2026
BSW holds party congress, adopts detailed election program emphasizing peace, social justice, and housing policies
BSW finalized its election platform focusing on peace politics, minimum wage initiatives, and housing reforms. Despite this programmatic clarity, the party's polling remained low, and the market.
Apr 18 2026
Polls show slight recovery for Grüne to around 15-16%, reflecting renewed focus on environmental and social policies
Grüne jumps to 15%6%
Improved polling numbers in mid-April, possibly due to campaign efforts emphasizing green policies, led to a moderate.
Mar 28 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, Linke, and AfD nearly tied, reflecting a fragmented race
Grüne rises to 12%3%
An April BerlinTrend poll revealed a tight race with Grüne close to other parties, temporarily boosting market confidence in their chances.
Mar 28 2026
AfD Thuringia becomes strongest party in 2024 state election with 32.8%
AfD dips to 10%3%
AfD’s historic win in Thuringia as the strongest party in a German state parliament underscored its regional strength but also intensified scrutiny and resistance, possibly tempering Berlin market enthusiasm.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll confirms BSW at 4%, still below threshold, with CDU leading the race
BSW dips to 1%1%
Another poll by Civey reaffirmed BSW's weak position at 4%, maintaining market consensus that BSW was unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold, keeping the.
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election kicks off 2026 election season with AfD polling 21%
The start of the 2026 election season with AfD polling strongly in Baden-Württemberg (21%) indicated growing national relevance, though Berlin-specific prospects remained uncertain.
Feb 28 2026
AfD surges in Saxony-Anhalt state polls to 41%, far ahead of CDU
AfD rises to 15%3%
Infratest dimap polling showed AfD widening its lead in Saxony-Anhalt to 41%, signaling strong regional momentum in eastern Germany and raising hopes for electoral breakthroughs, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll reports BSW at 4%, still under the threshold but showing slight improvement
BSW jumps to 7%6%
The INSA poll showed a modest rise in BSW support to 4%, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a small.
Feb 16 2026
SPD Berlin Landesvorstand approves draft of the 2026 election program
SPD rises to 7%1%
Approval of the draft election program signaled SPD's preparation for the campaign, but market reaction was muted due to lack of major new policy announcements.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows BSW at 3% support, well below the 5% electoral threshold
A major January poll by Infratest dimap confirmed BSW's low voter support at 3%, far below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. This reinforced market skepticism about BSW's chances, keeping the.
Jan 9 2026
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate, intensifying competition for left-leaning voters
Grüne rises to 5%1%
SPD's nomination of Steffen Krach and focus on housing and social services increased pressure on Grüne to maintain their voter base, causing minor.
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with record 27% support
AfD rises to 11%4%
A GMS poll published in early January showed AfD at a record 27% nationwide, ahead of Chancellor Merz’s CDU at 24%, marking the party’s highest-ever polling and briefly boosting market optimism.
Dec 15 2025
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the
CDU rises to 61%1%
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the Union”
Dec 10 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 25%, Grüne at 15% amid active campaigning by all parties
Grüne plunges to 1%49%
Late 2025 polls indicated CDU as the frontrunner with 25%, while Grüne lagged at 15%, signaling a weak position for the Greens and triggering a sharp.
Dec 2 2025
BSW announces two Spitzenkandidaten for Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election: Alexander King and Michael Lüders
BSW plunges to 1%49%
The BSW publicly revealed its lead candidates for the September 2026 Berlin state election, marking its first run for the Abgeordnetenhaus. Despite this, the party was new and polling weakly, leading to a rapid market.
Dec 1 2025
Saxony revokes firearms licenses of AfD members under secret decree citing right-wing extremist classification
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Saxony’s Interior Ministry confirmed a secret decree revoking and denying firearms licenses to AfD members and supporters, citing the party’s designation as a confirmed right-wing extremist group. This legal pressure likely undermined confidence in AfD’s electoral prospects in Berlin, triggering a sharp.
Aug 31 2025
Steffen Krach selected as SPD lead candidate for 2026 Berlin state election
SPD rises to 9%3%
The nomination of Steffen Krach, Berlin Police president, as lead candidate was seen as a positive step for SPD's campaign, causing a modest
Mar 1 2024
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin
SPD rises to 9%3%
The start of coalition talks with CDU raised some hopes for SPD's influence in government, slightly stabilizing the market
Dec 12 2023
SPD suffers worst result in over a century with 18.4% in Berlin repeat state election, barely ahead of the Greens by 53 votes
SPD plunges to 8%42%
The SPD's historic low vote share in the 2023 repeat election shocked the market, causing a sharp drop in confidence about SPD winning the 2026 election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
CDU leads trader consensus for the September 2026 Berlin state election due to its position as incumbent in the current CDU-SPD coalition and stronger polling averages ahead of the September 20 vote. Recent state election results elsewhere in Germany have shown CDU resilience in forming coalitions while SPD support has declined sharply. Grüne gains reflect voter shifts toward environmental priorities in urban districts, while AfD and Linke hold steady bases that could fragment the outcome and complicate majority formation. SPD weakness stems from national trends and local governance fatigue, keeping its implied win probability low. The fragmented field and 130-seat threshold mean no party is assured a majority, with coalition negotiations likely to determine the final governing arrangement after results.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
CDU leads trader consensus for the September 2026 Berlin state election due to its position as incumbent in the current CDU-SPD coalition and stronger polling averages ahead of the September 20 vote. Recent state election results elsewhere in Germany have shown CDU resilience in forming coalitions while SPD support has declined sharply. Grüne gains reflect voter shifts toward environmental priorities in urban districts, while AfD and Linke hold steady bases that could fragment the outcome and complicate majority formation. SPD weakness stems from national trends and local governance fatigue, keeping its implied win probability low. The fragmented field and 130-seat threshold mean no party is assured a majority, with coalition negotiations likely to determine the final governing arrangement after results.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
May 10 2026
AfD candidate René Stadtkewitz wins first directly elected full-time mayor position in Brandenburg
AfD rises to 19%2%
The AfD’s symbolic local victory with Stadtkewitz’s direct mayoral win in Brandenburg was hailed as a momentum signal for upcoming Berlin elections, slightly boosting market confidence.
May 9 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag finalizes election program
SPD dips to 7%3%
The final program adoption did not significantly improve market confidence, possibly due to perceived lack of breakthrough policies or broader coalition challenges.
May 8 2026
SPD Berlin Landesparteitag scheduled to finalize election program on May 8-9
SPD rises to 10%3%
Anticipation of the final program adoption gave a slight boost to SPD's market
May 7 2026
Latest PolitPro poll places Grüne at 16.6%, behind CDU and AfD but ahead of SPD, indicating stable but limited growth
Grüne rises to 22%3%
Recent polling data confirmed Grüne's position as a significant but not leading force, supporting a modest upward.
Apr 28 2026
AfD hits 51% in Berlin opinion polls but faces entrenched center-right and left coalitions
AfD jumps to 17%7%
AfD briefly peaked in Berlin polls at 51%, reflecting a surge in popularity, but persistent skepticism and strong coalitions limited further gains, causing volatile market reactions.
Apr 25 2026
BSW holds party congress, adopts detailed election program emphasizing peace, social justice, and housing policies
BSW finalized its election platform focusing on peace politics, minimum wage initiatives, and housing reforms. Despite this programmatic clarity, the party's polling remained low, and the market.
Apr 18 2026
Polls show slight recovery for Grüne to around 15-16%, reflecting renewed focus on environmental and social policies
Grüne jumps to 15%6%
Improved polling numbers in mid-April, possibly due to campaign efforts emphasizing green policies, led to a moderate.
Mar 28 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, Linke, and AfD nearly tied, reflecting a fragmented race
Grüne rises to 12%3%
An April BerlinTrend poll revealed a tight race with Grüne close to other parties, temporarily boosting market confidence in their chances.
Mar 28 2026
AfD Thuringia becomes strongest party in 2024 state election with 32.8%
AfD dips to 10%3%
AfD’s historic win in Thuringia as the strongest party in a German state parliament underscored its regional strength but also intensified scrutiny and resistance, possibly tempering Berlin market enthusiasm.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll confirms BSW at 4%, still below threshold, with CDU leading the race
BSW dips to 1%1%
Another poll by Civey reaffirmed BSW's weak position at 4%, maintaining market consensus that BSW was unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold, keeping the.
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election kicks off 2026 election season with AfD polling 21%
The start of the 2026 election season with AfD polling strongly in Baden-Württemberg (21%) indicated growing national relevance, though Berlin-specific prospects remained uncertain.
Feb 28 2026
AfD surges in Saxony-Anhalt state polls to 41%, far ahead of CDU
AfD rises to 15%3%
Infratest dimap polling showed AfD widening its lead in Saxony-Anhalt to 41%, signaling strong regional momentum in eastern Germany and raising hopes for electoral breakthroughs, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll reports BSW at 4%, still under the threshold but showing slight improvement
BSW jumps to 7%6%
The INSA poll showed a modest rise in BSW support to 4%, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a small.
Feb 16 2026
SPD Berlin Landesvorstand approves draft of the 2026 election program
SPD rises to 7%1%
Approval of the draft election program signaled SPD's preparation for the campaign, but market reaction was muted due to lack of major new policy announcements.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows BSW at 3% support, well below the 5% electoral threshold
A major January poll by Infratest dimap confirmed BSW's low voter support at 3%, far below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. This reinforced market skepticism about BSW's chances, keeping the.
Jan 9 2026
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate, intensifying competition for left-leaning voters
Grüne rises to 5%1%
SPD's nomination of Steffen Krach and focus on housing and social services increased pressure on Grüne to maintain their voter base, causing minor.
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with record 27% support
AfD rises to 11%4%
A GMS poll published in early January showed AfD at a record 27% nationwide, ahead of Chancellor Merz’s CDU at 24%, marking the party’s highest-ever polling and briefly boosting market optimism.
Dec 15 2025
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the
CDU rises to 61%1%
CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the Union”
Dec 10 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 25%, Grüne at 15% amid active campaigning by all parties
Grüne plunges to 1%49%
Late 2025 polls indicated CDU as the frontrunner with 25%, while Grüne lagged at 15%, signaling a weak position for the Greens and triggering a sharp.
Dec 2 2025
BSW announces two Spitzenkandidaten for Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election: Alexander King and Michael Lüders
BSW plunges to 1%49%
The BSW publicly revealed its lead candidates for the September 2026 Berlin state election, marking its first run for the Abgeordnetenhaus. Despite this, the party was new and polling weakly, leading to a rapid market.
Dec 1 2025
Saxony revokes firearms licenses of AfD members under secret decree citing right-wing extremist classification
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Saxony’s Interior Ministry confirmed a secret decree revoking and denying firearms licenses to AfD members and supporters, citing the party’s designation as a confirmed right-wing extremist group. This legal pressure likely undermined confidence in AfD’s electoral prospects in Berlin, triggering a sharp.
Aug 31 2025
Steffen Krach selected as SPD lead candidate for 2026 Berlin state election
SPD rises to 9%3%
The nomination of Steffen Krach, Berlin Police president, as lead candidate was seen as a positive step for SPD's campaign, causing a modest
Mar 1 2024
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin
SPD rises to 9%3%
The start of coalition talks with CDU raised some hopes for SPD's influence in government, slightly stabilizing the market
Dec 12 2023
SPD suffers worst result in over a century with 18.4% in Berlin repeat state election, barely ahead of the Greens by 53 votes
SPD plunges to 8%42%
The SPD's historic low vote share in the 2023 repeat election shocked the market, causing a sharp drop in confidence about SPD winning the 2026 election.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti
"Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 8 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "CDU" a 36%, seguito da "Verdi" a 23%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 36¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 36% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" ha generato $2.6 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Dec 2, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino", esplora i 8 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" è "CDU" a 36%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 36% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Verdi" a 23%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.
Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $2.6 million scambiati su "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 36¢ per "CDU" nel mercato "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 36% che "CDU" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 36¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 64¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" è programmato per la risoluzione il o intorno al Sep 20, 2026. Questo significa che il trading rimarrà aperto e le quote continueranno a cambiare man mano che emergono nuove informazioni fino a quella data. La tempistica esatta di risoluzione dipende da quando il risultato ufficiale diventa disponibile, come indicato nella sezione "Regole" su questa pagina.
Il mercato "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" ha una discussione in crescita di 7 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti