Tight monetary policy remains the dominant force anchoring trader consensus on Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the Selic rate held near 14.5–15% since mid-2025—the highest level in nearly two decades. This restrictive stance has compressed credit availability and tempered domestic demand, placing the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands in near parity at 37.5% and 37.0% implied probability, respectively. Offsetting factors include fiscal support through minimum-wage adjustments and targeted credit programs that have lifted March retail sales and April PMI readings above 52, alongside resilient agricultural output and external demand. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with modest sequential acceleration followed by moderation. The IBGE quarterly national accounts release on May 29 serves as the binding catalyst, with any deviation in high-frequency indicators likely to shift the closely matched market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita del PIL del Brasile nel primo trimestre del 2026?
Crescita del PIL del Brasile nel primo trimestre del 2026?
1,9%–2,2% 37.5%
1,5%–1,8% 37%
1,1%–1,4% 5.9%
2,3%–2,6% 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
29 mag 2026
<0,7%
2%
0,7%–1,0%
2%
1,1%–1,4%
6%
1,5%–1,8%
37%
1,9%–2,2%
38%
2,3%–2,6%
18%
≥2,7%
3%
1,9%–2,2% 37.5%
1,5%–1,8% 37%
1,1%–1,4% 5.9%
2,3%–2,6% 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
29 mag 2026
<0,7%
$14,390 Vol.
2%
0,7%–1,0%
$661 Vol.
2%
1,1%–1,4%
$720 Vol.
6%
1,5%–1,8%
$1,045 Vol.
37%
1,9%–2,2%
$1,635 Vol.
38%
2,3%–2,6%
$732 Vol.
18%
≥2,7%
$1,827 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTight monetary policy remains the dominant force anchoring trader consensus on Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the Selic rate held near 14.5–15% since mid-2025—the highest level in nearly two decades. This restrictive stance has compressed credit availability and tempered domestic demand, placing the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands in near parity at 37.5% and 37.0% implied probability, respectively. Offsetting factors include fiscal support through minimum-wage adjustments and targeted credit programs that have lifted March retail sales and April PMI readings above 52, alongside resilient agricultural output and external demand. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with modest sequential acceleration followed by moderation. The IBGE quarterly national accounts release on May 29 serves as the binding catalyst, with any deviation in high-frequency indicators likely to shift the closely matched market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volume
$21,009Data di fine
29 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTight monetary policy remains the dominant force anchoring trader consensus on Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the Selic rate held near 14.5–15% since mid-2025—the highest level in nearly two decades. This restrictive stance has compressed credit availability and tempered domestic demand, placing the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands in near parity at 37.5% and 37.0% implied probability, respectively. Offsetting factors include fiscal support through minimum-wage adjustments and targeted credit programs that have lifted March retail sales and April PMI readings above 52, alongside resilient agricultural output and external demand. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with modest sequential acceleration followed by moderation. The IBGE quarterly national accounts release on May 29 serves as the binding catalyst, with any deviation in high-frequency indicators likely to shift the closely matched market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$21,009Data di fine
29 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight monetary policy remains the dominant force anchoring trader consensus on Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the Selic rate held near 14.5–15% since mid-2025—the highest level in nearly two decades. This restrictive stance has compressed credit availability and tempered domestic demand, placing the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands in near parity at 37.5% and 37.0% implied probability, respectively. Offsetting factors include fiscal support through minimum-wage adjustments and targeted credit programs that have lifted March retail sales and April PMI readings above 52, alongside resilient agricultural output and external demand. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with modest sequential acceleration followed by moderation. The IBGE quarterly national accounts release on May 29 serves as the binding catalyst, with any deviation in high-frequency indicators likely to shift the closely matched market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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