Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote show President Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, typically in the 4–6 point range on valid votes, with third-place candidates such as Renan Santos and Augusto Cury drawing single-digit support. This positioning aligns with trader emphasis on a sub-5% Lula margin, as the race remains polarized and undecided voters persist. Lula’s recent increases to Bolsa Família benefits and other targeted social measures have helped stabilize his first-round standing after earlier tightening. Bolsonaro’s campaign has narrowed gaps in some surveys, keeping a sub-5% victory for him as the second-most favored outcome. The overall closeness reflects entrenched voter bases, high rejection rates for both frontrunners, and limited momentum for other candidates in the final week.