Recent polls place incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38–40% in first-round voting intentions for Brazil’s October 4 election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37% and remaining support fragmented among smaller candidates. This narrow gap, confirmed across Quaest, Ideia, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-May, sustains trader focus on a sub-5% or 5–10% Lula victory while keeping open the slim chance of a Flávio-led narrow win. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval and unified opposition backing behind the Liberal Party candidate after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have kept the contest competitive. The fragmented field and historical first-round volatility reinforce expectations of a tight margin rather than a decisive lead for either frontrunner.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrimo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: margine di vittoria
Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: margine di vittoria
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 25%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 8.0%
$231,656 Vol.
$231,656 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
2%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
25%
Vittoria di Renan Santos
5%
Vittoria di Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Vittoria di Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Altro
10%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 25%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 8.0%
$231,656 Vol.
$231,656 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 Vol.
2%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,627 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Vol.
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 Vol.
25%
Vittoria di Renan Santos
$200,633 Vol.
5%
Vittoria di Tarcisio de Freitas
$1,712 Vol.
<1%
Vittoria di Ratinho Júnior
$1,774 Vol.
<1%
Altro
$2,258 Vol.
10%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls place incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38–40% in first-round voting intentions for Brazil’s October 4 election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37% and remaining support fragmented among smaller candidates. This narrow gap, confirmed across Quaest, Ideia, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-May, sustains trader focus on a sub-5% or 5–10% Lula victory while keeping open the slim chance of a Flávio-led narrow win. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval and unified opposition backing behind the Liberal Party candidate after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have kept the contest competitive. The fragmented field and historical first-round volatility reinforce expectations of a tight margin rather than a decisive lead for either frontrunner.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$231,656Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls place incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38–40% in first-round voting intentions for Brazil’s October 4 election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37% and remaining support fragmented among smaller candidates. This narrow gap, confirmed across Quaest, Ideia, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-May, sustains trader focus on a sub-5% or 5–10% Lula victory while keeping open the slim chance of a Flávio-led narrow win. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval and unified opposition backing behind the Liberal Party candidate after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have kept the contest competitive. The fragmented field and historical first-round volatility reinforce expectations of a tight margin rather than a decisive lead for either frontrunner.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$231,656Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls place incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38–40% in first-round voting intentions for Brazil’s October 4 election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33–37% and remaining support fragmented among smaller candidates. This narrow gap, confirmed across Quaest, Ideia, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-May, sustains trader focus on a sub-5% or 5–10% Lula victory while keeping open the slim chance of a Flávio-led narrow win. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval and unified opposition backing behind the Liberal Party candidate after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have kept the contest competitive. The fragmented field and historical first-round volatility reinforce expectations of a tight margin rather than a decisive lead for either frontrunner.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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