The split in Colombia’s right-wing vote between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia has kept Iván Cepeda Castro’s projected first-round lead modest despite his consistent polling advantage ahead of the May 31 vote. Recent surveys, including Invamer’s late-April reading and AtlasIntel’s mid-May poll, place Cepeda between 37% and 44% while his nearest rivals remain in the low-to-mid 20s, producing margins clustered in the single digits to low teens. Traders have priced the 10-15 point band highest because any consolidation behind one right-wing candidate could compress or expand that gap, while ongoing security concerns and undecided voters continue to limit sharper separation before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 37%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 31%
de la Espriella Win 16%
Cepeda Castro 15-20% 10.8%
$14,806 Vol.
$14,806 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
16%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
37%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
31%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
10%
de la Espriella Win
16%
Valencia Win
1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 37%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 31%
de la Espriella Win 16%
Cepeda Castro 15-20% 10.8%
$14,806 Vol.
$14,806 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,782 Vol.
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,213 Vol.
16%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,082 Vol.
37%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,096 Vol.
31%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,216 Vol.
10%
de la Espriella Win
$4,100 Vol.
16%
Valencia Win
$2,260 Vol.
1%
Other
$2,056 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The split in Colombia’s right-wing vote between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia has kept Iván Cepeda Castro’s projected first-round lead modest despite his consistent polling advantage ahead of the May 31 vote. Recent surveys, including Invamer’s late-April reading and AtlasIntel’s mid-May poll, place Cepeda between 37% and 44% while his nearest rivals remain in the low-to-mid 20s, producing margins clustered in the single digits to low teens. Traders have priced the 10-15 point band highest because any consolidation behind one right-wing candidate could compress or expand that gap, while ongoing security concerns and undecided voters continue to limit sharper separation before election day.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercato aperto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$14,806Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The split in Colombia’s right-wing vote between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia has kept Iván Cepeda Castro’s projected first-round lead modest despite his consistent polling advantage ahead of the May 31 vote. Recent surveys, including Invamer’s late-April reading and AtlasIntel’s mid-May poll, place Cepeda between 37% and 44% while his nearest rivals remain in the low-to-mid 20s, producing margins clustered in the single digits to low teens. Traders have priced the 10-15 point band highest because any consolidation behind one right-wing candidate could compress or expand that gap, while ongoing security concerns and undecided voters continue to limit sharper separation before election day.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$14,806Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The split in Colombia’s right-wing vote between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia has kept Iván Cepeda Castro’s projected first-round lead modest despite his consistent polling advantage ahead of the May 31 vote. Recent surveys, including Invamer’s late-April reading and AtlasIntel’s mid-May poll, place Cepeda between 37% and 44% while his nearest rivals remain in the low-to-mid 20s, producing margins clustered in the single digits to low teens. Traders have priced the 10-15 point band highest because any consolidation behind one right-wing candidate could compress or expand that gap, while ongoing security concerns and undecided voters continue to limit sharper separation before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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